Aroldis Chapman is owed nearly $30 million over the final two seasons of his five-year contract with the Yankees, an amount he could possibly top for one season if he exercises his opt-out clause at the end of the 2019 season.
But Chapman’s decision looms not for another four months after the World Series is over and at the beginning of another free agency period.
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“Contract stuff hasn’t even crossed my mind at all,” Chapman said through an interpreter Wednesday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, refuting a report by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that a friend of the player believes he will opt-out.
“There’s no reason for me to start thinking about changes or anything like that,” Chapman said. “I feel great here. Eventually, when the season is over, I’ll sit down and talk about it. No need right now.”
Chapman likely is thinking primarily about this season, a year that’s thus far netted him his sixth All-Star nod, 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and a resurgence of his pitch control that’s led to a near-halving of his walk rate following his injury-hindered 2018 season.
But when Chapman does decide to sit down and think about his contract options — and the opt-out deadline is typically only a few days after the start of free agency — he’ll find an interesting dilemma brought upon him by age, tradability, and what could be a drawn-out process in free agency under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.
The Yankees granted Chapman a full no-trade clause for the first three seasons of his five-year deal, but beginning next year the Yankees can move him as they so wish to any team except one based on the West Coast.
Chapman signed his current deal ahead of the 2017 season when the Yankees were expecting to “rebuild” to an extent. Now, it’s tough to see a circumstance where the team would not be competitive in the final two years of the closer’s deal. But players, particularly ones who are 10 years into their major-league careers as Chapman is, enjoy the security of a no-trade deal.
“From what I understand,” Chapman said Tuesday, “After next year, my contract changes a little bit and the Yankees have the ability to trade me.”
He expressed a desire to finish his career in New York, telling reporters that “God willing, I’d want to finish it here.”
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But Chapman, despite his age (32 next season), declining fastball velocity, and the occasional ninth-inning catastrophe, is still one of baseball’s elite closers. Chapman, who has a 2.45 ERA/185 ERA+ this season, is the third-highest paid closer this season, behind Kenley Jansen in Los Angeles (3.72 ERA/112 ERA+), and Wade Davis in Colorado (6.04 ERA/89 ERA+).
Chapman was once the hardest-throwing pitcher many of us had ever seen, but has lost about one mile per hour off his fastball since 2016. This season, he’s relying on his slider more than ever to produce outs, turning to it nearly 33 percent of the time.
No pitcher is going to average 101 miles per hour forever, and it is massively unlikely Chapman will ever throw the hardest pitch of the season again due to his age and the massive uptick in high-velocity throwers. But the loss of his velocity (which is still four miles per hour faster than the league-average amongst relief pitchers), does not necessarily spell the loss of his effectiveness. If anything, Chapman has shown this season that he can still be as dominant and intimidating as ever.
One major factor for Chapman to consider when he does seriously weigh his options entering this offseason is the drawn-out saga fellow elite closer Craig Kimbrel experienced when he hit free agency last offseason.
Chapman and Kimbrel are the same age and are both undoubtedly elite players at their position. Kimbrel’s career stats are better than Chapman’s (a career 205 ERA+ to 182 ERA+, respectively), but his free agency nightmare will surely be on the mind of Chapman or his agent as the opt-out date looms.
Kimbrel was offered a qualifying offer by the Red Sox following the conclusion of the 2018 championship season, worth $17.9 million for a one-year deal. He was one of seven players to receive an offer, and Dodgers pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu was the only player to accept. The previous year, all nine players who received a qualifying offer rejected the deal.
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It was inevitable that Kimbrel would opt-out. It would have been a significant raise over the $13 million he’d earned through arbitration in 2018, but he’d had three All-Star seasons in a row in Boston (with 2017 being his best) and despite a rough turn in the postseason he was still expected to be one of baseball’s most effective closers.
But Kimbrel ran into something the MLBPA will work to change in the soon-to-come negotiations with MLB regarding a new CBA. The qualifying offer comes with a draft pick penalty for the team that signs a player before the June amateur draft. In this day and age teams are valuing those picks more and more for what they can get for the future — a controllable, cost-effective addition to their roster.
Kimbrel’s free agency campaign might have also been hindered by what was reported to be sky-high asks by his agency for long-term deals reaching nine figures. It was likely also hurt by the general cooling of free-agent markets under this current CBA. But with Dallas Keuchel sitting at home until June as well, there’s no denying that the draft pick penalty played a part in the potential Hall of Fame closer sitting out the season until early June. (The Yankees, who would have forfeited the 38th overall pick in this year’s draft had they signed a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer, were unwilling to do so to sign Keuchel.)
When Chapman reaches the end of his season — second World Series ring or not — he’ll have to take the particulars of this market into consideration. There is a reasonable argument to be made that if he continues his strong season he could get a better deal elsewhere; Kimbrel eventually got $43 million in total for three-and-a-half seasons, which dwarfs $15 million in the next two seasons. Jansen, who is the same age as Chapman and is his closest analog as calculated by Bill James’ Similarity Scores, is due to make $18 million and $20 million in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
Jansen’s five-year deal is for $6 million less than Chapman’s current deal, but the Yankees agreed to pay Chapman a flat $15 million in salary per season while the Dodgers backloaded Jansen’s paydays to the final two years.
Additionally, Chapman could opt-out and renegotiate with the Yankees, as Clayton Kershaw did this previous offseason with the Dodgers. Kershaw was set to be paid $65 million over the course of the 2019-2020 seasons, but the two parties agreed on a contract that will pay him $93 million between 2019-2021.
Chapman, if he does want to be a Yankee long past this year’s opt-out deadline, should hope for a situation analogous to Kershaw’s rather than Kimbrel’s. The Yankees’ 2020 bullpen plans could be complicated by Dellin Betances’ first sniff of free agency. Losing both the set-up man and the closer — despite having Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton around through at least 2021 — would be a tough blow to a team which tends to find its strength in relief pitching rather than the rotation. If his season continues apace, it’s fair to expect he’d have leverage in negotiating with his current team while entering his age-32 season.
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It was clear on Wednesday that Chapman would rather not have even broached the subject of his contract status in mid-July, but his situation serves as a reminder that his career flexibility is more limited yet complicated than the average person’s. His physical tools are evolving and the player contract market is growing less secure for star players who’ve crossed into their thirties. Yet he is still one of the game’s very best closers, and it should be unsurprising if he attempts to maximize his future earned value.
(Top photo: Mike Stobe/Getty Images)