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Maybe It All Comes Down to Abortion

In the battleground state of Arizona, Democrats hope that anger over Dobbs and state-level restrictions will send people to the polls and keep Biden in the White House.

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

astead hearndon

That’s — I imagine what we’re looking for, right?

caitlin o'keefe

I think so.

astead hearndon

So we just follow courtesy?

caitlin o'keefe

Yeah. [LAUGHS]

astead hearndon

[LAUGHS]:

caitlin o'keefe

Hey!

astead hearndon

Hi, I think we might be looking for each other.

astead hearndon

A few weeks ago, my colleague Caitlin and I were wandering around the base of a dusty hiking trail in Arizona.

astead hearndon

We’re from “The New York Times.” Nice to meet you.

susan

Nice to meet you.

astead hearndon

Hi, how are you.

caitlin o'keefe

Hey.

steve

I’m Steve.

astead hearndon

We thought you guys were — Astead.

steve

Astead? It’s a pleasure, pleasure.

caitlin o'keefe

Steven?

steve

Yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin.

steve

Caitlin, pleasure.

susan

We spent an hour at another trailhead going, where do you think they are?

astead hearndon

I’m sorry! Did we go to the wrong one?

steve

No, you’re the right one. We went to the wrong one. I Google mapped it this morning. I said, take me to Dreamy Draw trailhead. It said, got you! And they sent us to the one — it’s just a mile down the road.

caitlin o'keefe

Oh!

steve

And it was a beautiful trailhead, but it wasn’t — and we’re saying, wow, this doesn’t look at all like what people described to us. Because we’ve gone to multiple trailheads, right? And this is the first time we’ve come to Dreamy Draw because we heard the last time, they had such a good turnout and such a positive response out here. I’ll get the —

astead hearndon

OK, cool. We’ll stay out of y’all’s way for a second.

susan

Park the car and we’ll get all set up.

astead hearndon

No problem. Remind me your name again?

susan

My name is Susan Ashley.

astead hearndon

Susan, OK. Astead.

astead hearndon

Apparently, Dreamy Draw trailhead is a great place for foot traffic in Maricopa County, and so, for an ambitious organizer, a perfect place to collect signatures.

child

Can I get one of those?

caitlin o'keefe

A pin?

susan

Well, you know, I think your parents — we’ll ask your parents and see if that’s OK.

child

Well, my dad’s not here.

steve

How about your mom?

susan

Yeah.

child

She’s over there. I bet you she would be — she would love it.

susan

Well, I’ll tell you, why don’t you drag her over? But we can’t give it to you without talking to her. Because it has some sensitive stuff on it.

child

Sensitive?

susan

Yeah, and we just want to make sure your parents are OK with that.

child

What? Like what?

susan

Well, it’s just an issue that is a grown-ups issue. So it’s something that you normally don’t see the kids involved in. So just see what she says. She might be perfectly OK with it.

astead hearndon

It was 7:30 in the morning on a Saturday and Susan and Steve are collecting signatures for a new ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the Arizona State Constitution.

mother

Hey, bub. What’d you learn?

child

I’m just trying to get one of those pins.

susan

Well, yeah. So we decided we’d better talk to mom before we — before we give out a sticker. You ready?

mother

Yep.

susan

Are you registered in Maricopa County.

mother

Yeah, absolutely.

susan

OK. Do you know what you’re signing?

mother

Yes.

susan

Good. OK, now, carefully printing first and last name, because this is how they find you on the voting rolls.

child

So what is this — what is this?

susan

I’m going to have your mom explain it to you on the drive home

mother

I will explain it to you.

susan

It’s 5/11 today.

mother

Thank you.

susan

You did a perfect job. She takes instruction well.

mother

Military.

susan

OK. So now your mom, she’s now said it’s OK for you to take this. So you can either have a pin or a sticker, whichever one you’d like.

child

Which one would you take?

susan

The sticker is so good on backpacks, hats.

mother

Is it? Does it stay?

susan

It does.

mother

OK, cool. Let’s do this one, all right? Thank y’all. Appreciate what you do.

caitlin o'keefe

Can I ask you one question?

astead hearndon

My name’s Astead, this is Caitlin. We’re from “The New York Times.” We’re talking to people about the referendum, and partially why they are motivated to sign. You said you knew already what it was. I’m curious how this came on your radar?

mother

This has been on my radar for a long, long time. I’ve had friends in situations where their health was threatened, where the quality of life for not only the mother who was pregnant and their existing family, and the baby would have been negatively impacted by the addition to the family. I understand how our planet itself is facing crises when it comes to healthcare, medical care, with just —

child

Are you on TV?

mother

— no — with just sustainability. Overall, we can’t sustain the rate at which we’re repopulating — so just a whole lot of reasons. And I never had to face this choice, but my mother has. I’ve had three best friends who have. And I understand. It’s just not — it’s not right for anybody to make that decision for somebody else.

astead hearndon

Are you someone who considers themselves like Democrat, Republican? Do you see that outside of it?

mother

Moderate. I just — issue by issue.

[laughs]

Yeah.

astead hearndon

Arizona’s place in this election is so big, and on this issue is going to be really big too. Are you talking to people about this? How much has this been —?

mother

I have three jobs and I’m in school and I’m a single mom and I take care of my mom. I talk to nobody.

astead hearndon

[LAUGHS]: She said, I don’t talk to nobody, but I know what I feel about this.

mother

I know. Yeah. Absolutely, appreciate y’all.

caitlin o'keefe

Have a good one.

mother

Yeah, y’all stay hydrated.

child

There’s just a yellow snake over there.

susan

Do you guys have water?

steve

A snake?

child

Yeah, snake holes.

steve

Snake holes.

mother

Yeah, we took some back trails and saw snakes, so be careful.

steve

All right.

mother

Come on, honey bun.

steve

Have a good day.

mother

Bye, y’all.

child

Have a good day!

susan

I didn’t feel that was exploiting the child too much, did you?

steve

Hey! You didn’t at all. He was adorable.

[PIANO MUSIC]

astead hearndon

If you’re a Democrat, or someone who wants President Biden to win re-election, there hasn’t been a lot of good news lately. Most polling following Trump’s criminal conviction shows him tied or ahead. Republicans have started to close the Democrats advantage in fundraising.

And this week, President Biden’s average approval rating dropped to the lowest in his entire term, as voters continue to prefer Trump on issues like immigration and the economy. But in state and local elections over the past two years, there’s a good argument that abortion rights has been the most politically salient issue of all, throwing the Republican Party into chaos and helping Democrats achieve key victories throughout the midterms.

So for the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could impact the 2024 election through the lens of Arizona, a battleground state that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, and that both parties are desperate to claim in November. Today, how abortion rights groups have turned the “Dobbs” decision into their most potent political weapon, and the Democrats trying to seize on it. From “The New York Times,” I’m Astead Herndon. This is “The Run-Up.”

astead hearndon

How often have you been going out to collect signatures?

susan

Well, we’re out here six days a week. We’re trying trailheads. But we go to parks. We go to bookstores. We go to nice little bars.

[laughs]

We go any place where we think we can capture a demographic, we’ll try to get there.

astead hearndon

So Susan and Steve are volunteering with Arizona for Abortion Access, a coalition of groups collecting signatures for this ballot measure that would create a constitutional right to an abortion in Arizona. Right now, abortion is legal there up to 15 weeks. If this measure passes, it will be protected up to fetal viability, which is usually defined around 22 to 24 weeks. That would also allows for some exceptions.

The group says they already have well over the number of signatures they need to get the measure on the ballot, but they’re still collecting anyway, in anticipation of legal challenges.

astead hearndon

This might seem intuitive, but can you explain why it’s this issue that you think motivated you specifically about it?

susan

Yes. So I was absolutely in despair about what was happening here. And for me, this issue, I said, OK, this is something I can do that will have an impact, that will drive people to the polls. Because we have a big problem here with not being able to get the younger demographic and get the minority demographic. And we’ve got to get those —

astead hearndon

Out to vote.

susan

— out to vote, yes. We’ve got to get those people out to vote. And I figured that this cause, which is also very dear to my heart because — I was 16 when “Roe versus Wade” came out. And I never had to worry about this issue at all. And I am outraged at what they’re trying to take, the grabbiness of what is happening here.

I cannot believe that in this day and age, that they’re interfering in this thing at all. But it’s a very powerful and resonates quite a bit with the voters. And that’s a great thing. So if we can get these people who sign this out to the polls, that will be wonderful.

astead hearndon

The efforts got a surprising boost in April when the state Supreme Court revived an 1864 law, written back when Arizona was still a territory, that would have made nearly all abortions illegal. The state legislature overturned the law, but it drove a lot of engagement.

steve

Absolutely. As soon as the 1864 was passed — when we were out petitioning, we would get maybe a page — we were getting four and five and six pages at a time. People were lined up to come and sign the petition. And they would wait in line to be able to do that. Now — and again, occasionally we’ll get a little bit of a rush. But for the most part, it’s onesie, twosie, threesie.

But when we had a dozen people in line waiting for this, it was exciting, but also kind of upsetting that it took that to get people to want to sign the initiative. So again, we were crushed by the fact that they did it, but really thankful that it actually got some people who were kind of on the fence, or thinking it’s going to be OK without my help. They realized.

And honestly, that was part of us. We were home, looking at the television, screaming at it, complaining. And I said, we can scream and complain at the television, or we can spleen —

[laughs]

to the television and do something.

astead hearndon

As we’ve been talking, some more people had started wandering by —

steve

Are you a registered voter?

tony

I am.

steve

In Maricopa County.

tony

I am.

steve

Do you know what you’re signing? This is a pro-choice women’s reproductive freedom?

tony

Yep. I. Already signed this one at Changing Hands.

susan

Thank you for the support. The women in your life thank you.

steve

Do you need a pen?

astead hearndon

— which gave us an opportunity to pull them aside and learn a little more about the type of Arizonans that were supporting the efforts.

tony

Tony.

astead hearndon

Astead. Nice to meet you. Just curious, you said you already signed. How did this issue come on your radar?

tony

Oh, It’s been on my radar for quite some time. It’s been very disappointing that Democrats in general haven’t prioritized codifying “Roe” even before the Supreme Court loading with Trump. And it’s an important issue, no matter where you stand on it morally. If you just look at it from the perspective of, so many things can go wrong during a pregnancy, right?

And besides all that, it’s still just between the woman and her doctor and her family. And that’s where the choice should lie. And I don’t believe the state should be involved in that whatsoever. And yeah, I’m proud to see that my community is out here lobbying for these types of issues.

astead hearndon

Are you someone who considers himself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, anything?

tony

I probably would have identified as a Democrat for majority of time. But they’re probably more right I than I am. I feel like I would probably put myself more in an independent camp now.

astead hearndon

What’s shifted?

tony

To be perfectly honest with you, is probably around the 2016 election. A candidate like Trump doesn’t come to fruition if the Democratic Party actually listens to its constituents and prioritizes the issues that we talk about.

astead hearndon

You’re saying, Democrats should see Trump ascending as a Democratic failure?

tony

Correct, absolutely. Because you lost a lot of Independents. You lost a lot of people, again, that are talking about the real things that are happening right now in our communities. Like, you can’t buy a house in the city now. We’re not talking about those things and doing anything about them at a legislative level that actually pushes — that makes the middle class stronger, that gives opportunities to lower class coming up.

I don’t really believe that the Democratic Party even understands what their base is. And so am I OK with more of the same if it means that we don’t have Trump back in power? Then yeah. But am I disappointed overall about the directionality of politics and like — yeah, where we’re going as a Democratic Party? Like, I’m not.

astead hearndon

So what I hear is, you might end up voting for Biden in the fall, but you see it as more of an anti-Trump vote than like an endorsement of the Democratic Party’s direction.

tony

Yeah. I think we have to do a better job at a grassroots level to make our voices heard. I love seeing things like this, people out here lobbying for issues that matter to them. I think at a community level we have to open conversations more. People just in general feel very divided because they just dig their heels into issues, and they don’t want to listen to the other side.

To be perfectly honest with you, when I was younger, I used to be a pro-life advocate. I was brought up that way. That’s what I believed. And it wasn’t until I had a real conversation with a dear friend of mine that had to make a difficult choice, and it opened my eyes. But if I wasn’t open to that conversation with that person that was willing to share her story with me, I don’t know that I start that path.

steve

Yeah, I hear you.

tony

And so, yeah, I think on both sides, we need to listen. And we need to be open to having these discussions. I was born and raised here. This is my backyard, my community. And I’ve seen it go from a hard red to a purple state. So I know progress is possible. But we’re not doing enough.

steve

Cool.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. You can get to your hike. I appreciate it.

steve

Yeah, have a great day.

man

tony

Pleasure meeting you both.

steve

Yeah, thank you.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. Hook it on.

astead hearndon

A few more people came by —

susan

Reproductive freedom for women?

man 1

Obviously yes, 100 percent.

susan

OK, are you —

astead hearndon

— some supporters —

steve

Have you signed our petition yet?

man 2

What’s this?

steve

This is women’s reproductive choice.

man 2

I don’t believe in that. I believe that choice is for the baby.

steve

Got it.

susan

Thank you.

astead hearndon

— and some opponents who didn’t want to engage.

susan

Have you signed the initiative yet?

astead hearndon

Then —

susan

Are you Arizona voters?

rachel

Yep, I signed already.

susan

You’ve signed, thank you. Have you signed, sir?

morgan

I will absolutely sign.

susan

Perfect. So are you registered voter?

morgan

I am.

susan

Are you in Maricopa County?

morgan

I do.

susan

There you go. You’ve answered everything properly. And do you know what you’re signing?

morgan

Yes.

susan

OK.

astead hearndon

— a small group came by —

caitlin o'keefe

Can we just get your names real quick?

morgan

Yeah, Morgan.

rachel

Rachel.

caitlin o'keefe

Morgan?

astead hearndon

— who’d just come down from the trail.

astead hearndon

You said that the issue was like something you already knew about. How did this get on your radar?

morgan

Yeah, it’s just a long running issue within Arizona. And it’s really unfortunate because we already have enough problems here. But stating what women and women can’t do with their bodies is just — it’s gross. It’s disgusting. It’s not OK.

caitlin o'keefe

Have you guys always voted? Do you associate yourself with a particular political party or identify with one?

rachel

Yeah, I’ve always been a voter, Independent and Democrat.

astead hearndon

How about you?

morgan

I would say — I’m an inconsistent voter, but more, I guess, Democrat-leaning Independent.

astead hearndon

Obviously this is going to be a unique presidential election because it’s going to be a rematch between Biden and Trump. When we talk to people about that, we get a lot of range of opinions about the fact that it’s going to be the two same candidates again. What do you think about that? And how are you feeling about the job that President Biden’s doing, if you don’t mind me asking?

rachel

I think President Biden is doing a great job. I think that the economy has been in its best in many, many years, even before Trump or Obama. I mean, of course, things change, times change, things become more expensive. That’s just kind of how everything goes.

And that’s — you can’t buy things for a penny anymore.

[laughs]

So things change. You just got to adapt to those things and that there’s nothing to do with him. And of course with the two running against each other again, definitely not Trump, [LAUGHS]: ever. He is the biggest child — manchild [LAUGHS]: ever.

astead hearndon

Did you vote in the last presidential election?

morgan

I did.

astead hearndon

Do you who I ask you’ve voted for? Biden, Trump?

morgan

We — I went voted for Biden.

astead hearndon

Do you think you’re going to vote again in this one?

morgan

No, I don’t think so. I think the voting climate right now is just really exhausting for a lot of people. The two-party system is frustrating, only having the same two options. I don’t think we should have deep senior citizens in office making decisions for the country. They’re antiquated. Their beliefs are old. It’s just not progressive. It’s not what — the direction we should be going.

astead hearndon

You’re saying the candidate options that are presented now make you not want to vote?

morgan

Yeah, absolutely not. It’s just — yeah, it’s either one or the other, and neither is really great.

astead hearndon

Yeah. I mean, we heard how you feel about Trump. How do you feel about Trump?

morgan

I’m not a big fan. I think he elicits a lot of anger and a lot of separation between people. It’s not a good look for our country. And it’s not a community-driven thing. It doesn’t make people believe each other and help each other out. It just creates walls. And that’s a bummer. So yeah.

astead hearndon

But he’s not — it’s not enough for you — you wouldn’t vote for Biden to stop him, it seems.

morgan

No.

astead hearndon

Why not?

morgan

I don’t necessarily think it stops it. It’s just a two-party system. It’s two groups of people perpetually screaming at each other. A vote’s not going to help. Yeah.

astead hearndon

But it seems like what is motivating you all is things like this referendum. You may not want those candidates back, but you do want stuff like abortion rights to be enshrined.

rachel

Yes.

morgan

Yes.

astead hearndon

Got it. What were you going to say? Sorry.

caitlin o'keefe

Would that bring you to the polls if this is on the ballot?

morgan

Absolutely, yeah. 100 percent.

astead hearndon

But would you skip over the presidential race?

morgan

[LAUGHS]: I mean, if I’m there, I’m there. I’ll probably make a choice and vote. But otherwise, I’m not super interested in it. Yeah.

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. We really appreciate your time.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

Have a great day. Bye.

astead hearndon

The hikers who are supporting the ballot initiative pretty much represent the coalition of voters that abortion rights advocates are hoping for — a mix of committed liberals and some others who may not support Democrats traditionally or vote regularly, but are more motivated specifically by this issue. But I wasn’t sure if groups like Arizona for Abortion Access saw their efforts as directly connected to helping President Biden win.

caitlin o'keefe

Let me just figure out where we’re going.

astead hearndon

So we headed back into downtown Phoenix —

astead hearndon

Can you introduce yourself and tell me what you do?

athena salman

My name is Athena Salman.

astead hearndon

— to meet with Athena Salman.

athena salman

I am the director of Arizona campaigns for Reproductive Freedom For All. I mobilize 75,000 members that we have in Arizona to move reproductive rights and freedoms in every single congressional district in the state. We’re working to flip the state legislature. We’re working to pass the ballot initiative and ultimately secure huge reproductive rights victories in Arizona, moving forward.

astead hearndon

And you’re a former state legislator.

athena salman

And I’m a former state legislator.

astead hearndon

Athena has lived in Arizona for her whole life, and has seen a lot of changes in the state.

athena salman

When I was in college, that is when we got a Republican trifecta. So the governor was Republican, the legislature was controlled by Republicans. And prior to that with the former governor, she was vetoing a lot of the really harsh bills that were passing through the legislature. But that’s what really got me involved, the budget cuts to education, the attacks on women’s rights, on immigration rights.

astead hearndon

She joined the state legislature in 2017 when Arizona was in the midst of its shift to purple.

athena salman

So in 2018, not only did we flip the US Senate seat, but we also picked up enough seats for the Republicans to have a one vote majority. And that’s where we’ve been stuck ever since. But it is so, so close. And then —

astead hearndon

And then came “Dobbs.”

athena salman

— in 2022. I’ll never forget that moment. People who I had known to be lifelong Republicans, having their voices heard at the ballot box, doing the research of like, OK, you know what? I really don’t care about the party anymore. I want to know, who are the candidates that are going to fundamentally protect this right?

And then in the 2022 election cycle, we saw huge victories with Governor Hobbs, who campaigned on the issue of abortion, defeating extremist Kari Lake. And then also very significantly, is attorney general Kris Mayes, who won that seat — statewide seat — by 280 votes. And now she’s just one of our most vocal active defenders of reproductive freedom in Arizona.

astead hearndon

Athena and her group see abortion as the issue they need to finally push Arizona across the line.

athena salman

With Reproductive Freedom For All, we are continuing to work to flip the legislature so we have a majority that supports reproductive freedom. And then, of course, we’re one of the founding members, and we’re part of the coalition to secure the right to abortion in the Constitution through the citizen initiative so that in the future, our rights aren’t up in the air, and people aren’t being whiplashed back and forth, based on what a politician or a judge does.

astead hearndon

Can you take me through what the November referendum would include, both in terms of abortion access and the possible exceptions after?

athena salman

Yeah, absolutely. So first, what we are talking about here is a citizen initiative that will actually have the effect of protecting the legal right to abortion in Arizona. At the end of the day, the language got put in a place where we know that it very much closely restores the rights that we had under “Roe v. Wade.”

What that means is, up until fetal viability, the right of abortion is intact and protected for anyone who is seeking care. And after viability, there is the room for the decision to seek abortion care to be protected between the provider and the patient for health reasons, which includes mental health reasons.

The reality with pregnancy is you cannot predict every complication. And so that is why it’s so important for that provision to be protected of after viability. That’s the bottom line here. And as a former elected official and policymaker, you can’t legislate every single reason why someone would need an abortion and terminate a pregnancy.

But what you can do is you can make sure that when someone has made that decision and needs to cross that bridge, that there is a way for them to get access to that healthcare when they need it, free from punishment or judgment.

astead hearndon

And when we say fetal viability, is there a weeks time to that?

athena salman

Really, that’s determined by providers.

astead hearndon

You know, when it became clear that the ballot measure was probably going to get enough signatures to appear in November, in political world, there was a lot of sense of how much that shifts the presidential election that, with such a consensus issue and such an important state, that the best thing that could happen to Joe Biden maybe doesn’t have to do with him at all, but might be this thing happening in the state. Does the way that this referendum affects Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, is that part of the calculus in it?

athena salman

No, because when you look at the partisan breakdown, it’s a third, a third, a third — a third Democrat, a third Republican, a third unaffiliated voters. And even in the last few election cycles, candidates who campaigned on the right to legal abortion ended up winning and securing those seats.

So the voters are smart. They do their research. And when you compare the two track records, Donald Trump appointed the justices who undermined and overturned 50 years of legal precedent protecting the right to abortion. Our current president has made a commitment to protect and restore a federal right to abortion. So at the end of the day, the voters already see that contrast, and that’s what they’re going to be going to the ballot box.

astead hearndon

Even though Donald Trump is currently saying that he doesn’t support a federal abortion ban, you’re saying, the past is still enough to hold on to.

athena salman

Well, yeah. We are in this mess. Arizona is in this mess because of Donald Trump and because of what he did to the Supreme Court. So voters — voters will remember that.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

athena salman

Yeah, yeah.

astead hearndon

Athena is describing a scenario that Democrats are banking on in 2024. Recent polling shows that 65 percent of likely Arizona voters support the abortion amendment. So advocates hope that not only do a wide range of voters show up in November to enshrine a woman’s right to choose in the state, they also punish Donald Trump for the role he played in overturning “Roe” and sending this issue back to the states to begin with.

And while that could be true, Trump has also tried to distance himself from his party’s most extreme positions on the issue — so much so that it seemed worth asking, are there Arizona voters who support abortion rights and Trump? After the break, Caitlin goes to find out.

After several days in the Phoenix area, I actually had to fly out because of a previous engagement. But Caitlin stuck around. Because there was one more event in Arizona that we wanted to go to, in the far west of the state, about a four hour drive from Phoenix, in Bullhead City. Bullhead City is in Mojave County, an area nestled in the desert between Phoenix and Las Vegas that’s very, very conservative.

Four years ago, Trump got almost 75 percent of the vote in Mojave County. But that didn’t stop Pam Sheyne. She’s a volunteer for Arizona For Abortion Access who lives in the area, and was planning to gather signatures at her neighborhood Bunco club meeting. And if you don’t know what Bunco is, don’t worry — neither did we.

caitlin o'keefe

What is Bunco?

pam sheyne

Oh, OK, it’s a dice game. OK? You take dice, and there’s one through six on the dice. And you have to get — first, you throw for ones, and you throw for twos, and you throw for threes, and you throw for four — all the way up to six. Then we rest, we have a little snack and then we do round two.

[CHEERING]

Somebody got a bunco. They’ll ring the bell. Hang on, I got to go.

woman

All right. The Bunco is when you roll — say we’re rolling ones. If I get three ones — I got one. But if I get three ones, it’s a Bunco. There’s two.

[CHEERING]

That’s 21 points. That’s what you need.

[INTERPOSING VOICES]

They get a little wild, huh?

[cheering, bell ringing]

astead hearndon

About 30 women were at Bunco club. Many of them were post-retirement age, wearing black t-shirts that said “Dice Girls” on them. One person always brings dessert, and that week it was chocolate cake.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you introduce yourself? Tell me who you are and what you do.

pam sheyne

My name is Pamela Sheyne. I’m a retired R.N. of 38 years. I retired from Summerlin Hospital where I did open heart for years. And I retired the first of the year. And so I’ve lived here for 20 years off and on, but we’ve traveled a lot. So mostly, though, I worked in — because of my specialty doing open heart, I had to go to Las Vegas to do it.

astead hearndon

Like the couple we met earlier, Pam also got involved in the ballot initiative after the state moved to revive its 1864 ban.

pam sheyne

I went to go sign it. And I said, I’ll help. I’ll try to get signatures. That’s how I found out about it. Because I researched it and I said oh my god, where can I sign this? Because I heard about it. Then they changed it — it was so barbaric. To me it was like, what, are you taking my rights?

What are you going to do, to take my voting rights away next? What are you going to do next? I mean, if you’re going to do this — we’ve only been voting for 100 years. What else are you going to take? You’re going to start taking birth control away and IVF? And I was just like, I have to do something. I don’t want to just sit at home and whine about it.

I want to do something proactive. And if that is getting signatures to put a petition onto the ballot so that we can vote — all Arizonans can vote, not just Republicans or Democrats or Independents — everybody. And so for me, it’s not a matter of, do I agree with abortion, do I practice abortion? That’s not my thing. My thing is about the choice of women having the option, if they have no other option to do this. And it shouldn’t be taken away.

astead hearndon

Pam is focused on winning people over here. Many of whom, like her, have conservative roots.

pam sheyne

It’s a very, very red area. And I’m not a red person, OK? I used to be a Republican, I hate to admit. But I’m no longer a Republican. Ever since the Trump era started, I changed my ticket. I said, that’s it. I can’t — I don’t believe in this. I didn’t vote for him. I won’t vote for him. I never will vote for him.

But living here in this area has been horrendous for me. Having to watch people that — my good friends believe in something that they — it’s just like they’re brainwashed. It’s so bad here.

caitlin o'keefe

So you’re a volunteer for Arizona For Abortion Access. What’s it like gathering signatures for this abortion ballot initiative here?

pam sheyne

Sometimes it’s kind of tough. Because you’re dealing with a lot of preset notions. There’s some that’s very religious. There’s some there’s not. There’s some that are like, well, that just goes against everything. You’re a baby killer. I’m like, I’m not a baby killer. I’m a nurse. How could I be a baby killer? I’m not about killing children. But it’s just their backwards thinking. And most of the women, like you’ll see, are a older group here. And most of them have already lived their lives. But it’s their children and their grandchildren that now have these laws. They have the freedom to choose. Why don’t you want the same thing for your children? And that’s the thing I try to get across. Why don’t you want the same thing for your children that you had?

caitlin o'keefe

That’s your pitch?

pam sheyne

Yeah, basically.

caitlin o'keefe

Can I listen to you do your thing?

pam sheyne

Sure, sure.

astead hearndon

Pam approached one of the tables where several women were sitting.

woman

Hi, there.

pam sheyne

I had to tell everybody.

woman

How are you?

pam sheyne

Guys, I’m bringing a petition today to everybody. So this is to put on the ballot for all Arizonans. You don’t have to be a Republican, a Democrat or Independent. It’s for all women who are here tonight. So if you want to sign, this to put the law on the books for us to have rights back and turn the rights back over so that we have rights for abortion. So you only have to be a registered Mojave voter. So if anybody’d like to sign, I have it here.

bunco player 1

I would.

bunco player 2

Gorgeous.

bunco player 3

It is.

bunco player 4

I need to get my glasses.

[laughs]

I can’t see shit.

bunco player 5

What exactly —

astead hearndon

When they passed around the petition —

pam sheyne

Nobody’s first name, but everyone —

astead hearndon

— the group’s ideological diversity became clear.

bunco player 6

Nobody judges nobody.

pam sheyne

That’s right. When you have that right, and everybody else should have the right, too, right?

bunco player 7

OK, I’ll sign it.

astead hearndon

Some signed immediately.

pam sheyne

You don’t have to, it’s all right.

bunco player 8

I know.

astead hearndon

Some people passed. And when Caitlin followed up with women in both groups, their reasoning was both political and very personal.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

bunco player 9

To me, killing any life is against what I believe.

bunco player 10

It’s your body. You should have the right to choose. This should have never been taken away.

bunco player 11

But if you’re in the heat of passion and you spread your legs and you get pregnant and then, oh shoot, I didn’t want that baby — you gave up your right to control your whole body once you have another baby in there.

bunco player 12

I signed the paper for abortion because I have a granddaughter that was very sick during her pregnancy in Bullhead City two years ago. And the doctor could not perform abortion. The baby died inside of her before they could take it out. And it’s very sad. I’m hoping that the abortion become legal, specially for certain case.

astead hearndon

Their beliefs about abortion did sometimes align with the traditional partisan split on the issue. But for a number of women in this red pocket of a purple state, that was not the case.

caitlin o'keefe

What’s your name?

judy

Judy McClanahan.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin. So when Pam came around with the petition, what did you do?

judy

Signed.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you tell me why?

judy

Because I believe women should have the right to an abortion or not.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with the most?

judy

Republican. I’m 100 percent for Donald Trump. And I think Joe Biden has done everything he could to ruin our country.

caitlin o'keefe

Are you planning on voting in November?

judy

Oh, yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you feel in line with your party on abortion?

judy

No, no. I don’t look at it politically. I look at it as a woman. And even if the Democrats are for it and the Republicans aren’t, that doesn’t sway my opinion.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you so much for talking to me. I really appreciate it.

judy

Sure, anytime.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you. And can I ask you all my questions now?

gail ann

You can ask me questions, but I don’t like to talk about politics.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you introduce yourself?

gail ann

My name is Gail Ann Maxim.

caitlin o'keefe

So when the signature page came around, what did you do?

gail ann

I signed it because I think it’s — women should be able to make a choice whether they can get an abortion or not. I don’t think that the government should be telling them they can’t, and it’s against the law. Yeah.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with?

gail ann

You know, I’m signed up Democrat. But normally if I vote, I vote for what I feel is right. I don’t always go along with a Democrat, no.

caitlin o'keefe

Are you planning on voting in November or do you think you will?

gail ann

Yeah. I need to vote because every vote counts, so yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you know who you would vote for at this point?

gail ann

You know what? I’m going to vote for other stuff, but I don’t think I’m going to vote for a president, because I don’t want either one.

caitlin o'keefe

So if abortion does get on the ballot, do you think you would vote on that issue?

gail ann

Yes, I would.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you so much.

gail ann

You’re welcome.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

The last person she talked to —

sherry

Sherry.

caitlin o'keefe

Sherry, it’s nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin.

sherry

Hi, Caitlin.

astead hearndon

— was a woman named Sherry.

sherry

I’m not against it, because I feel that you should have a choice. It’s your body. And I would hope that they would use good common sense and do it because there’s a reason to do it, not just because, oh, I don’t want a baby. It’s just so hard to say because you’re not in that person’s life. You don’t know what all the circumstances are. We can sit here and say, oh, well, she should do this, this and this. But you don’t know.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with?

sherry

Not really. I just — I really don’t know. I look at both sides. My one son is very, very liberal — very liberal. And my husband is very conservative, so we don’t talk too much about it.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you usually vote?

sherry

I used to. I didn’t last year. I’m going to try to this year, yeah.

caitlin o'keefe

What changed? Was there a thing that changed?

sherry

No, just — I think life just kind of got in the way. And the ballot came and then we had a different address, and this and that. But I need to do that. I really do, I know that.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there an issue that’s most important to you?

sherry

[SIGHS]: That’s a big one that we’re talking about.

caitlin o'keefe

Abortion?

sherry

Yes, definitely. And I don’t know. There’s so much out there going on right now with the taxes and this and that. And I — I don’t know. I like to think I’m pretty liberal, too. But then moving out here was kind of a little change for us.

caitlin o'keefe

When you say abortion is one that matters for you, what do you look for in a politician on abortion? Like, what do you believe about it, and what are you hoping to see in your government?

sherry

Well, I would hope he would put that, like you said on the ballot, where there’s women’s rights, for one thing, that we have a choice. But like I said, you don’t know what someone’s going through. And I hate to say, oh, yeah, I’m pro-life, and then stand there and say, you shouldn’t have done that because — it’s got to be a choice.

It’s your body, you know? And I was not married and I got pregnant and I went to Planned Parenthood. And I got this wonderful lady — and I was not young. So it wasn’t like, I can handle this. And I said, I don’t know what to do. And she said, it’s your choice. It’s your body, she said. So you have to decide. And don’t let him tell you, you should do this, this. It’s not happening to him.

And that always kind of stuck with me. Because it’s so true. I think that’s what happens to women. Their partner will say, we just can’t do this. You better go do that. Well, that’s wrong. That’s up to her.

caitlin o'keefe

What did you do?

sherry

Kept him. Yeah, he travels all over the world. Just has a wonderful life. Yeah. And I’m so proud for him to do that. And he makes a difference, being a teacher. So, you’ve got — each individual is going to be so different. It can be their age. They can be — if they’re 10 years old or 12 years old, yeah. Let’s think about this, and the quality of life that that baby’s going to have, or the mama’s going to have.

caitlin o'keefe

If you had to choose between Trump and Biden, do you know what you would do?

sherry

[EXHALES]: That’s a tough one.

[chuckles]

I try to listen to both sides of it. I guess I’d have to say Trump, because he just seems — not even all his — what he stands for and some of the things he says are just really not what I would think of. But Biden just seems, I hate to say it, kind of old. And I just feel like that’s not good for our country.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you feel like Trump is where you are on abortion?

sherry

I don’t follow him that much. I almost feel like, if it’s on a given day, [LAUGHS]: you know? Well, maybe that sounds good today. We’re going to get this and this. And then tomorrow, I’m going to change my mind. I feel like he can be very, very edgy, I guess, is a good word.

caitlin o'keefe

And so it seems like what you’re saying is there’s a world where in November, you might vote for Trump, and then you might also vote for this abortion initiative.

sherry

Yes, that’s true.

caitlin o'keefe

All right. I think that’s all I got. Thank you so much for talking to me.

sherry

I have my thoughts on it. But like I said, it’s just — I don’t know. It’s kind of hard. Like she said, our women’s rights. And I like to think back in the day, I would be one that would be out there really holding my little stick up, or whatever. Because women were, and still are, treated differently, unfortunately. And they’ll say oh, no. No, we are not equal. We just aren’t. And it shows. When push comes to shove and it gets down to the bottom line, we are not.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

astead hearndon

Sherry’s experience speaks to why abortion rights attracts such a broad coalition of support, and why the proposed ballot measure gives Democrats a unique opportunity to have one message that both motivates its base and appeals to the other side. Still, as the women of Bunco club illustrate, support for abortion rights doesn’t always translate to enthusiasm for the top of the ticket, much less for Joe Biden.

But there’s another, more subtle way that the presence of abortion rights on the ballot could help Democrats, beyond driving turnout or enthusiasm. It serves as a constant reminder of Republican extremism, considering it’s Donald Trump who got “Roe” overturned in the first place. And the party is yet to figure out its own position on the issue. That’s next week.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

[QUIET UPBEAT MUSIC]

That’s “The Run-Up” for Thursday, June 13th, 2024. And now, the rundown. Arizona is one of many places where abortion access is top-of-mind in 2024. So I figured this week, the rundown could zoom out a little to better understand the broader landscape of abortion rights in the rest of the country. And to do so, I called on an expert.

lisa lerer

I’m Lisa Lerer. I’m a national political correspondent at “The New York Times,” and I’m the author of a new book called “The Fall Of Roe and The Rise of a New America.”

astead hearndon

My colleague Lisa Lerer is a leading political reporter who focuses a lot of her work, and her new book, on chronicling how abortion access has changed.

lisa lerer

Our book really looks at what we call the final decade of the “Roe” era. Because that’s when — obviously, this is a 50 year fight by the anti-abortion movement. But it’s in that final decade that their efforts really start just increasing and intensifying. And then, of course, they hitched their star to Donald Trump, and he gets three Supreme Court justices. And so we really got behind the scenes on both the political and legal strategy that allowed their movement to accomplish this.

astead hearndon

Can you talk me through just what the state of abortion access is, and specifically how it relates to 2024 and November?

lisa lerer

Well, abortion has been restricted or banned in a little under half the country. I believe it’s about 21 states or so right now. That’s been going on since, of course, the Supreme Court ruling that got rid of “Roe.” In some of those states, the bans are in current litigation — so they’re in the court system.

In some of those states, abortion is just completely banned, places like Texas or Mississippi, where it has been completely criminalized. Those states cover the entire southeast, really, and parts of the west. And Biden has promised, of course, he’s made a central promise of his campaign to restore “Roe,” saying he’ll restore federal abortion rights.

That’s something that’s very hard to do. It will require 60 votes in the Senate, which is unlikely Democrats will have, or upending the filibuster to do it, which they also don’t have the votes to have — to do. So Democrats have really turned their attention and abortion rights supporters to going state by state and getting these ballot measures on the ballot and put in front of voters. And they’ve had some success so far with those efforts.

astead hearndon

Yeah. What are other states other than Arizona, where abortion could matter this November? Is there anywhere else where it’s on the ballot, quite literally?

lisa lerer

So there’s as many as a dozen states or so where they’re considering getting these things on the ballot. And abortion rights supporters are trying to get these measures on the ballot. A lot of them are really in flux. There’s court challenges to getting them on. There’s complicated processes. Every state has different processes to get them on.

Arizona is certainly a central focus of the political world because it’s such a pivotal swing state, and it has so many competitive races. People are also pretty focused on Florida because that’s historically — although it’s less of a swing state now — it’s historically been one.

And what some Biden campaign folks have told me is those states also have outsized resonance beyond the politics of their specific state. Because they think what the measures in those two states signal to voters is abortion bans and restrictions are not just an issue in these very conservative places like Mississippi, like Alabama.

They’re something that’s a national issue, and that’s also impacting states that voters may not expect as much — a place like Arizona or Florida — to have those kinds of laws.

astead hearndon

Gotcha. It seems as if abortion is playing two roles for Democrats right now. It is both a tangible issue that has a very literal effect for voters. And because it’s been returned to the state, they can message specifically about its impact on your lives. And it also seems like it fits into a kind of broader messaging thing that they’re doing, painting Republicans as extreme and out of touch. And it feels like for those efforts, abortion is also a critical piece.

lisa lerer

Yes. And I think they’ve hit their stride, in some ways, on how they’ve messaged it.

astead hearndon

What do you mean?

lisa lerer

Well, for a long time, Democrats talked about abortion as healthcare. And what the data showed is that people really didn’t see abortion as healthcare. They didn’t think it was the same as going to get a root canal or whatever.

What they do see it as — and there’s been a lot of focus groups and polling and sort of political research on this — is an issue of freedom, of whether you have the right to control your body, to control your family, to make decisions about your own personal choices.

And that’s really the message that Democrats have embraced just up and down the ballot. And what we’ve seen, at least in these sort of two test cases that we’ve had since “Roe” fell, which, of course, were the 2022 midterms and these gubernatorial races in ‘23, is that it’s been a powerful message for them.

And it’s one that also cuts into sort of Republican messaging, that they have tried to frame themselves up as the party of freedom. And Democrats can kind of cut into that a little bit here.

astead hearndon

Got it. Thanks so much. We appreciate your time.

lisa lerer

Thanks for having me. There are 32 days to the Republican National Convention, 67 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 145 days until the General Election. We’ll see you next week.

[UPBEAT JAZZ MUSIC]

astead hearndon

“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon and produced by Alyssa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Ittoop.

It was mixed by Sophia Lanman and fact checked by Will Pichel. Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, and Elizabeth Bristow.

Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at [email protected]. Or better yet, record your question using the voice memo app in your phone. That email again is [email protected]. Thanks for listening, y’all.

Maybe It All Comes Down to Abortion

In the battleground state of Arizona, Democrats hope that anger over Dobbs and state-level restrictions will send people to the polls and keep Biden in the White House.

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transcript

Maybe It All Comes Down to Abortion

In the battleground state of Arizona, Democrats hope that anger over Dobbs and state-level restrictions will send people to the polls and keep Biden in the White House.

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

astead hearndon

That’s — I imagine what we’re looking for, right?

caitlin o'keefe

I think so.

astead hearndon

So we just follow courtesy?

caitlin o'keefe

Yeah. [LAUGHS]

astead hearndon

[LAUGHS]:

caitlin o'keefe

Hey!

astead hearndon

Hi, I think we might be looking for each other.

astead hearndon

A few weeks ago, my colleague Caitlin and I were wandering around the base of a dusty hiking trail in Arizona.

astead hearndon

We’re from “The New York Times.” Nice to meet you.

susan

Nice to meet you.

astead hearndon

Hi, how are you.

caitlin o'keefe

Hey.

steve

I’m Steve.

astead hearndon

We thought you guys were — Astead.

steve

Astead? It’s a pleasure, pleasure.

caitlin o'keefe

Steven?

steve

Yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin.

steve

Caitlin, pleasure.

susan

We spent an hour at another trailhead going, where do you think they are?

astead hearndon

I’m sorry! Did we go to the wrong one?

steve

No, you’re the right one. We went to the wrong one. I Google mapped it this morning. I said, take me to Dreamy Draw trailhead. It said, got you! And they sent us to the one — it’s just a mile down the road.

caitlin o'keefe

Oh!

steve

And it was a beautiful trailhead, but it wasn’t — and we’re saying, wow, this doesn’t look at all like what people described to us. Because we’ve gone to multiple trailheads, right? And this is the first time we’ve come to Dreamy Draw because we heard the last time, they had such a good turnout and such a positive response out here. I’ll get the —

astead hearndon

OK, cool. We’ll stay out of y’all’s way for a second.

susan

Park the car and we’ll get all set up.

astead hearndon

No problem. Remind me your name again?

susan

My name is Susan Ashley.

astead hearndon

Susan, OK. Astead.

astead hearndon

Apparently, Dreamy Draw trailhead is a great place for foot traffic in Maricopa County, and so, for an ambitious organizer, a perfect place to collect signatures.

child

Can I get one of those?

caitlin o'keefe

A pin?

susan

Well, you know, I think your parents — we’ll ask your parents and see if that’s OK.

child

Well, my dad’s not here.

steve

How about your mom?

susan

Yeah.

child

She’s over there. I bet you she would be — she would love it.

susan

Well, I’ll tell you, why don’t you drag her over? But we can’t give it to you without talking to her. Because it has some sensitive stuff on it.

child

Sensitive?

susan

Yeah, and we just want to make sure your parents are OK with that.

child

What? Like what?

susan

Well, it’s just an issue that is a grown-ups issue. So it’s something that you normally don’t see the kids involved in. So just see what she says. She might be perfectly OK with it.

astead hearndon

It was 7:30 in the morning on a Saturday and Susan and Steve are collecting signatures for a new ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the Arizona State Constitution.

mother

Hey, bub. What’d you learn?

child

I’m just trying to get one of those pins.

susan

Well, yeah. So we decided we’d better talk to mom before we — before we give out a sticker. You ready?

mother

Yep.

susan

Are you registered in Maricopa County.

mother

Yeah, absolutely.

susan

OK. Do you know what you’re signing?

mother

Yes.

susan

Good. OK, now, carefully printing first and last name, because this is how they find you on the voting rolls.

child

So what is this — what is this?

susan

I’m going to have your mom explain it to you on the drive home

mother

I will explain it to you.

susan

It’s 5/11 today.

mother

Thank you.

susan

You did a perfect job. She takes instruction well.

mother

Military.

susan

OK. So now your mom, she’s now said it’s OK for you to take this. So you can either have a pin or a sticker, whichever one you’d like.

child

Which one would you take?

susan

The sticker is so good on backpacks, hats.

mother

Is it? Does it stay?

susan

It does.

mother

OK, cool. Let’s do this one, all right? Thank y’all. Appreciate what you do.

caitlin o'keefe

Can I ask you one question?

astead hearndon

My name’s Astead, this is Caitlin. We’re from “The New York Times.” We’re talking to people about the referendum, and partially why they are motivated to sign. You said you knew already what it was. I’m curious how this came on your radar?

mother

This has been on my radar for a long, long time. I’ve had friends in situations where their health was threatened, where the quality of life for not only the mother who was pregnant and their existing family, and the baby would have been negatively impacted by the addition to the family. I understand how our planet itself is facing crises when it comes to healthcare, medical care, with just —

child

Are you on TV?

mother

— no — with just sustainability. Overall, we can’t sustain the rate at which we’re repopulating — so just a whole lot of reasons. And I never had to face this choice, but my mother has. I’ve had three best friends who have. And I understand. It’s just not — it’s not right for anybody to make that decision for somebody else.

astead hearndon

Are you someone who considers themselves like Democrat, Republican? Do you see that outside of it?

mother

Moderate. I just — issue by issue.

[laughs]

Yeah.

astead hearndon

Arizona’s place in this election is so big, and on this issue is going to be really big too. Are you talking to people about this? How much has this been —?

mother

I have three jobs and I’m in school and I’m a single mom and I take care of my mom. I talk to nobody.

astead hearndon

[LAUGHS]: She said, I don’t talk to nobody, but I know what I feel about this.

mother

I know. Yeah. Absolutely, appreciate y’all.

caitlin o'keefe

Have a good one.

mother

Yeah, y’all stay hydrated.

child

There’s just a yellow snake over there.

susan

Do you guys have water?

steve

A snake?

child

Yeah, snake holes.

steve

Snake holes.

mother

Yeah, we took some back trails and saw snakes, so be careful.

steve

All right.

mother

Come on, honey bun.

steve

Have a good day.

mother

Bye, y’all.

child

Have a good day!

susan

I didn’t feel that was exploiting the child too much, did you?

steve

Hey! You didn’t at all. He was adorable.

[PIANO MUSIC]

astead hearndon

If you’re a Democrat, or someone who wants President Biden to win re-election, there hasn’t been a lot of good news lately. Most polling following Trump’s criminal conviction shows him tied or ahead. Republicans have started to close the Democrats advantage in fundraising.

And this week, President Biden’s average approval rating dropped to the lowest in his entire term, as voters continue to prefer Trump on issues like immigration and the economy. But in state and local elections over the past two years, there’s a good argument that abortion rights has been the most politically salient issue of all, throwing the Republican Party into chaos and helping Democrats achieve key victories throughout the midterms.

So for the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could impact the 2024 election through the lens of Arizona, a battleground state that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, and that both parties are desperate to claim in November. Today, how abortion rights groups have turned the “Dobbs” decision into their most potent political weapon, and the Democrats trying to seize on it. From “The New York Times,” I’m Astead Herndon. This is “The Run-Up.”

astead hearndon

How often have you been going out to collect signatures?

susan

Well, we’re out here six days a week. We’re trying trailheads. But we go to parks. We go to bookstores. We go to nice little bars.

[laughs]

We go any place where we think we can capture a demographic, we’ll try to get there.

astead hearndon

So Susan and Steve are volunteering with Arizona for Abortion Access, a coalition of groups collecting signatures for this ballot measure that would create a constitutional right to an abortion in Arizona. Right now, abortion is legal there up to 15 weeks. If this measure passes, it will be protected up to fetal viability, which is usually defined around 22 to 24 weeks. That would also allows for some exceptions.

The group says they already have well over the number of signatures they need to get the measure on the ballot, but they’re still collecting anyway, in anticipation of legal challenges.

astead hearndon

This might seem intuitive, but can you explain why it’s this issue that you think motivated you specifically about it?

susan

Yes. So I was absolutely in despair about what was happening here. And for me, this issue, I said, OK, this is something I can do that will have an impact, that will drive people to the polls. Because we have a big problem here with not being able to get the younger demographic and get the minority demographic. And we’ve got to get those —

astead hearndon

Out to vote.

susan

— out to vote, yes. We’ve got to get those people out to vote. And I figured that this cause, which is also very dear to my heart because — I was 16 when “Roe versus Wade” came out. And I never had to worry about this issue at all. And I am outraged at what they’re trying to take, the grabbiness of what is happening here.

I cannot believe that in this day and age, that they’re interfering in this thing at all. But it’s a very powerful and resonates quite a bit with the voters. And that’s a great thing. So if we can get these people who sign this out to the polls, that will be wonderful.

astead hearndon

The efforts got a surprising boost in April when the state Supreme Court revived an 1864 law, written back when Arizona was still a territory, that would have made nearly all abortions illegal. The state legislature overturned the law, but it drove a lot of engagement.

steve

Absolutely. As soon as the 1864 was passed — when we were out petitioning, we would get maybe a page — we were getting four and five and six pages at a time. People were lined up to come and sign the petition. And they would wait in line to be able to do that. Now — and again, occasionally we’ll get a little bit of a rush. But for the most part, it’s onesie, twosie, threesie.

But when we had a dozen people in line waiting for this, it was exciting, but also kind of upsetting that it took that to get people to want to sign the initiative. So again, we were crushed by the fact that they did it, but really thankful that it actually got some people who were kind of on the fence, or thinking it’s going to be OK without my help. They realized.

And honestly, that was part of us. We were home, looking at the television, screaming at it, complaining. And I said, we can scream and complain at the television, or we can spleen —

[laughs]

to the television and do something.

astead hearndon

As we’ve been talking, some more people had started wandering by —

steve

Are you a registered voter?

tony

I am.

steve

In Maricopa County.

tony

I am.

steve

Do you know what you’re signing? This is a pro-choice women’s reproductive freedom?

tony

Yep. I. Already signed this one at Changing Hands.

susan

Thank you for the support. The women in your life thank you.

steve

Do you need a pen?

astead hearndon

— which gave us an opportunity to pull them aside and learn a little more about the type of Arizonans that were supporting the efforts.

tony

Tony.

astead hearndon

Astead. Nice to meet you. Just curious, you said you already signed. How did this issue come on your radar?

tony

Oh, It’s been on my radar for quite some time. It’s been very disappointing that Democrats in general haven’t prioritized codifying “Roe” even before the Supreme Court loading with Trump. And it’s an important issue, no matter where you stand on it morally. If you just look at it from the perspective of, so many things can go wrong during a pregnancy, right?

And besides all that, it’s still just between the woman and her doctor and her family. And that’s where the choice should lie. And I don’t believe the state should be involved in that whatsoever. And yeah, I’m proud to see that my community is out here lobbying for these types of issues.

astead hearndon

Are you someone who considers himself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, anything?

tony

I probably would have identified as a Democrat for majority of time. But they’re probably more right I than I am. I feel like I would probably put myself more in an independent camp now.

astead hearndon

What’s shifted?

tony

To be perfectly honest with you, is probably around the 2016 election. A candidate like Trump doesn’t come to fruition if the Democratic Party actually listens to its constituents and prioritizes the issues that we talk about.

astead hearndon

You’re saying, Democrats should see Trump ascending as a Democratic failure?

tony

Correct, absolutely. Because you lost a lot of Independents. You lost a lot of people, again, that are talking about the real things that are happening right now in our communities. Like, you can’t buy a house in the city now. We’re not talking about those things and doing anything about them at a legislative level that actually pushes — that makes the middle class stronger, that gives opportunities to lower class coming up.

I don’t really believe that the Democratic Party even understands what their base is. And so am I OK with more of the same if it means that we don’t have Trump back in power? Then yeah. But am I disappointed overall about the directionality of politics and like — yeah, where we’re going as a Democratic Party? Like, I’m not.

astead hearndon

So what I hear is, you might end up voting for Biden in the fall, but you see it as more of an anti-Trump vote than like an endorsement of the Democratic Party’s direction.

tony

Yeah. I think we have to do a better job at a grassroots level to make our voices heard. I love seeing things like this, people out here lobbying for issues that matter to them. I think at a community level we have to open conversations more. People just in general feel very divided because they just dig their heels into issues, and they don’t want to listen to the other side.

To be perfectly honest with you, when I was younger, I used to be a pro-life advocate. I was brought up that way. That’s what I believed. And it wasn’t until I had a real conversation with a dear friend of mine that had to make a difficult choice, and it opened my eyes. But if I wasn’t open to that conversation with that person that was willing to share her story with me, I don’t know that I start that path.

steve

Yeah, I hear you.

tony

And so, yeah, I think on both sides, we need to listen. And we need to be open to having these discussions. I was born and raised here. This is my backyard, my community. And I’ve seen it go from a hard red to a purple state. So I know progress is possible. But we’re not doing enough.

steve

Cool.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. You can get to your hike. I appreciate it.

steve

Yeah, have a great day.

man

tony

Pleasure meeting you both.

steve

Yeah, thank you.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. Hook it on.

astead hearndon

A few more people came by —

susan

Reproductive freedom for women?

man 1

Obviously yes, 100 percent.

susan

OK, are you —

astead hearndon

— some supporters —

steve

Have you signed our petition yet?

man 2

What’s this?

steve

This is women’s reproductive choice.

man 2

I don’t believe in that. I believe that choice is for the baby.

steve

Got it.

susan

Thank you.

astead hearndon

— and some opponents who didn’t want to engage.

susan

Have you signed the initiative yet?

astead hearndon

Then —

susan

Are you Arizona voters?

rachel

Yep, I signed already.

susan

You’ve signed, thank you. Have you signed, sir?

morgan

I will absolutely sign.

susan

Perfect. So are you registered voter?

morgan

I am.

susan

Are you in Maricopa County?

morgan

I do.

susan

There you go. You’ve answered everything properly. And do you know what you’re signing?

morgan

Yes.

susan

OK.

astead hearndon

— a small group came by —

caitlin o'keefe

Can we just get your names real quick?

morgan

Yeah, Morgan.

rachel

Rachel.

caitlin o'keefe

Morgan?

astead hearndon

— who’d just come down from the trail.

astead hearndon

You said that the issue was like something you already knew about. How did this get on your radar?

morgan

Yeah, it’s just a long running issue within Arizona. And it’s really unfortunate because we already have enough problems here. But stating what women and women can’t do with their bodies is just — it’s gross. It’s disgusting. It’s not OK.

caitlin o'keefe

Have you guys always voted? Do you associate yourself with a particular political party or identify with one?

rachel

Yeah, I’ve always been a voter, Independent and Democrat.

astead hearndon

How about you?

morgan

I would say — I’m an inconsistent voter, but more, I guess, Democrat-leaning Independent.

astead hearndon

Obviously this is going to be a unique presidential election because it’s going to be a rematch between Biden and Trump. When we talk to people about that, we get a lot of range of opinions about the fact that it’s going to be the two same candidates again. What do you think about that? And how are you feeling about the job that President Biden’s doing, if you don’t mind me asking?

rachel

I think President Biden is doing a great job. I think that the economy has been in its best in many, many years, even before Trump or Obama. I mean, of course, things change, times change, things become more expensive. That’s just kind of how everything goes.

And that’s — you can’t buy things for a penny anymore.

[laughs]

So things change. You just got to adapt to those things and that there’s nothing to do with him. And of course with the two running against each other again, definitely not Trump, [LAUGHS]: ever. He is the biggest child — manchild [LAUGHS]: ever.

astead hearndon

Did you vote in the last presidential election?

morgan

I did.

astead hearndon

Do you who I ask you’ve voted for? Biden, Trump?

morgan

We — I went voted for Biden.

astead hearndon

Do you think you’re going to vote again in this one?

morgan

No, I don’t think so. I think the voting climate right now is just really exhausting for a lot of people. The two-party system is frustrating, only having the same two options. I don’t think we should have deep senior citizens in office making decisions for the country. They’re antiquated. Their beliefs are old. It’s just not progressive. It’s not what — the direction we should be going.

astead hearndon

You’re saying the candidate options that are presented now make you not want to vote?

morgan

Yeah, absolutely not. It’s just — yeah, it’s either one or the other, and neither is really great.

astead hearndon

Yeah. I mean, we heard how you feel about Trump. How do you feel about Trump?

morgan

I’m not a big fan. I think he elicits a lot of anger and a lot of separation between people. It’s not a good look for our country. And it’s not a community-driven thing. It doesn’t make people believe each other and help each other out. It just creates walls. And that’s a bummer. So yeah.

astead hearndon

But he’s not — it’s not enough for you — you wouldn’t vote for Biden to stop him, it seems.

morgan

No.

astead hearndon

Why not?

morgan

I don’t necessarily think it stops it. It’s just a two-party system. It’s two groups of people perpetually screaming at each other. A vote’s not going to help. Yeah.

astead hearndon

But it seems like what is motivating you all is things like this referendum. You may not want those candidates back, but you do want stuff like abortion rights to be enshrined.

rachel

Yes.

morgan

Yes.

astead hearndon

Got it. What were you going to say? Sorry.

caitlin o'keefe

Would that bring you to the polls if this is on the ballot?

morgan

Absolutely, yeah. 100 percent.

astead hearndon

But would you skip over the presidential race?

morgan

[LAUGHS]: I mean, if I’m there, I’m there. I’ll probably make a choice and vote. But otherwise, I’m not super interested in it. Yeah.

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. We really appreciate your time.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

Have a great day. Bye.

astead hearndon

The hikers who are supporting the ballot initiative pretty much represent the coalition of voters that abortion rights advocates are hoping for — a mix of committed liberals and some others who may not support Democrats traditionally or vote regularly, but are more motivated specifically by this issue. But I wasn’t sure if groups like Arizona for Abortion Access saw their efforts as directly connected to helping President Biden win.

caitlin o'keefe

Let me just figure out where we’re going.

astead hearndon

So we headed back into downtown Phoenix —

astead hearndon

Can you introduce yourself and tell me what you do?

athena salman

My name is Athena Salman.

astead hearndon

— to meet with Athena Salman.

athena salman

I am the director of Arizona campaigns for Reproductive Freedom For All. I mobilize 75,000 members that we have in Arizona to move reproductive rights and freedoms in every single congressional district in the state. We’re working to flip the state legislature. We’re working to pass the ballot initiative and ultimately secure huge reproductive rights victories in Arizona, moving forward.

astead hearndon

And you’re a former state legislator.

athena salman

And I’m a former state legislator.

astead hearndon

Athena has lived in Arizona for her whole life, and has seen a lot of changes in the state.

athena salman

When I was in college, that is when we got a Republican trifecta. So the governor was Republican, the legislature was controlled by Republicans. And prior to that with the former governor, she was vetoing a lot of the really harsh bills that were passing through the legislature. But that’s what really got me involved, the budget cuts to education, the attacks on women’s rights, on immigration rights.

astead hearndon

She joined the state legislature in 2017 when Arizona was in the midst of its shift to purple.

athena salman

So in 2018, not only did we flip the US Senate seat, but we also picked up enough seats for the Republicans to have a one vote majority. And that’s where we’ve been stuck ever since. But it is so, so close. And then —

astead hearndon

And then came “Dobbs.”

athena salman

— in 2022. I’ll never forget that moment. People who I had known to be lifelong Republicans, having their voices heard at the ballot box, doing the research of like, OK, you know what? I really don’t care about the party anymore. I want to know, who are the candidates that are going to fundamentally protect this right?

And then in the 2022 election cycle, we saw huge victories with Governor Hobbs, who campaigned on the issue of abortion, defeating extremist Kari Lake. And then also very significantly, is attorney general Kris Mayes, who won that seat — statewide seat — by 280 votes. And now she’s just one of our most vocal active defenders of reproductive freedom in Arizona.

astead hearndon

Athena and her group see abortion as the issue they need to finally push Arizona across the line.

athena salman

With Reproductive Freedom For All, we are continuing to work to flip the legislature so we have a majority that supports reproductive freedom. And then, of course, we’re one of the founding members, and we’re part of the coalition to secure the right to abortion in the Constitution through the citizen initiative so that in the future, our rights aren’t up in the air, and people aren’t being whiplashed back and forth, based on what a politician or a judge does.

astead hearndon

Can you take me through what the November referendum would include, both in terms of abortion access and the possible exceptions after?

athena salman

Yeah, absolutely. So first, what we are talking about here is a citizen initiative that will actually have the effect of protecting the legal right to abortion in Arizona. At the end of the day, the language got put in a place where we know that it very much closely restores the rights that we had under “Roe v. Wade.”

What that means is, up until fetal viability, the right of abortion is intact and protected for anyone who is seeking care. And after viability, there is the room for the decision to seek abortion care to be protected between the provider and the patient for health reasons, which includes mental health reasons.

The reality with pregnancy is you cannot predict every complication. And so that is why it’s so important for that provision to be protected of after viability. That’s the bottom line here. And as a former elected official and policymaker, you can’t legislate every single reason why someone would need an abortion and terminate a pregnancy.

But what you can do is you can make sure that when someone has made that decision and needs to cross that bridge, that there is a way for them to get access to that healthcare when they need it, free from punishment or judgment.

astead hearndon

And when we say fetal viability, is there a weeks time to that?

athena salman

Really, that’s determined by providers.

astead hearndon

You know, when it became clear that the ballot measure was probably going to get enough signatures to appear in November, in political world, there was a lot of sense of how much that shifts the presidential election that, with such a consensus issue and such an important state, that the best thing that could happen to Joe Biden maybe doesn’t have to do with him at all, but might be this thing happening in the state. Does the way that this referendum affects Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, is that part of the calculus in it?

athena salman

No, because when you look at the partisan breakdown, it’s a third, a third, a third — a third Democrat, a third Republican, a third unaffiliated voters. And even in the last few election cycles, candidates who campaigned on the right to legal abortion ended up winning and securing those seats.

So the voters are smart. They do their research. And when you compare the two track records, Donald Trump appointed the justices who undermined and overturned 50 years of legal precedent protecting the right to abortion. Our current president has made a commitment to protect and restore a federal right to abortion. So at the end of the day, the voters already see that contrast, and that’s what they’re going to be going to the ballot box.

astead hearndon

Even though Donald Trump is currently saying that he doesn’t support a federal abortion ban, you’re saying, the past is still enough to hold on to.

athena salman

Well, yeah. We are in this mess. Arizona is in this mess because of Donald Trump and because of what he did to the Supreme Court. So voters — voters will remember that.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

astead hearndon

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

athena salman

Yeah, yeah.

astead hearndon

Athena is describing a scenario that Democrats are banking on in 2024. Recent polling shows that 65 percent of likely Arizona voters support the abortion amendment. So advocates hope that not only do a wide range of voters show up in November to enshrine a woman’s right to choose in the state, they also punish Donald Trump for the role he played in overturning “Roe” and sending this issue back to the states to begin with.

And while that could be true, Trump has also tried to distance himself from his party’s most extreme positions on the issue — so much so that it seemed worth asking, are there Arizona voters who support abortion rights and Trump? After the break, Caitlin goes to find out.

After several days in the Phoenix area, I actually had to fly out because of a previous engagement. But Caitlin stuck around. Because there was one more event in Arizona that we wanted to go to, in the far west of the state, about a four hour drive from Phoenix, in Bullhead City. Bullhead City is in Mojave County, an area nestled in the desert between Phoenix and Las Vegas that’s very, very conservative.

Four years ago, Trump got almost 75 percent of the vote in Mojave County. But that didn’t stop Pam Sheyne. She’s a volunteer for Arizona For Abortion Access who lives in the area, and was planning to gather signatures at her neighborhood Bunco club meeting. And if you don’t know what Bunco is, don’t worry — neither did we.

caitlin o'keefe

What is Bunco?

pam sheyne

Oh, OK, it’s a dice game. OK? You take dice, and there’s one through six on the dice. And you have to get — first, you throw for ones, and you throw for twos, and you throw for threes, and you throw for four — all the way up to six. Then we rest, we have a little snack and then we do round two.

[CHEERING]

Somebody got a bunco. They’ll ring the bell. Hang on, I got to go.

woman

All right. The Bunco is when you roll — say we’re rolling ones. If I get three ones — I got one. But if I get three ones, it’s a Bunco. There’s two.

[CHEERING]

That’s 21 points. That’s what you need.

[INTERPOSING VOICES]

They get a little wild, huh?

[cheering, bell ringing]

astead hearndon

About 30 women were at Bunco club. Many of them were post-retirement age, wearing black t-shirts that said “Dice Girls” on them. One person always brings dessert, and that week it was chocolate cake.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you introduce yourself? Tell me who you are and what you do.

pam sheyne

My name is Pamela Sheyne. I’m a retired R.N. of 38 years. I retired from Summerlin Hospital where I did open heart for years. And I retired the first of the year. And so I’ve lived here for 20 years off and on, but we’ve traveled a lot. So mostly, though, I worked in — because of my specialty doing open heart, I had to go to Las Vegas to do it.

astead hearndon

Like the couple we met earlier, Pam also got involved in the ballot initiative after the state moved to revive its 1864 ban.

pam sheyne

I went to go sign it. And I said, I’ll help. I’ll try to get signatures. That’s how I found out about it. Because I researched it and I said oh my god, where can I sign this? Because I heard about it. Then they changed it — it was so barbaric. To me it was like, what, are you taking my rights?

What are you going to do, to take my voting rights away next? What are you going to do next? I mean, if you’re going to do this — we’ve only been voting for 100 years. What else are you going to take? You’re going to start taking birth control away and IVF? And I was just like, I have to do something. I don’t want to just sit at home and whine about it.

I want to do something proactive. And if that is getting signatures to put a petition onto the ballot so that we can vote — all Arizonans can vote, not just Republicans or Democrats or Independents — everybody. And so for me, it’s not a matter of, do I agree with abortion, do I practice abortion? That’s not my thing. My thing is about the choice of women having the option, if they have no other option to do this. And it shouldn’t be taken away.

astead hearndon

Pam is focused on winning people over here. Many of whom, like her, have conservative roots.

pam sheyne

It’s a very, very red area. And I’m not a red person, OK? I used to be a Republican, I hate to admit. But I’m no longer a Republican. Ever since the Trump era started, I changed my ticket. I said, that’s it. I can’t — I don’t believe in this. I didn’t vote for him. I won’t vote for him. I never will vote for him.

But living here in this area has been horrendous for me. Having to watch people that — my good friends believe in something that they — it’s just like they’re brainwashed. It’s so bad here.

caitlin o'keefe

So you’re a volunteer for Arizona For Abortion Access. What’s it like gathering signatures for this abortion ballot initiative here?

pam sheyne

Sometimes it’s kind of tough. Because you’re dealing with a lot of preset notions. There’s some that’s very religious. There’s some there’s not. There’s some that are like, well, that just goes against everything. You’re a baby killer. I’m like, I’m not a baby killer. I’m a nurse. How could I be a baby killer? I’m not about killing children. But it’s just their backwards thinking. And most of the women, like you’ll see, are a older group here. And most of them have already lived their lives. But it’s their children and their grandchildren that now have these laws. They have the freedom to choose. Why don’t you want the same thing for your children? And that’s the thing I try to get across. Why don’t you want the same thing for your children that you had?

caitlin o'keefe

That’s your pitch?

pam sheyne

Yeah, basically.

caitlin o'keefe

Can I listen to you do your thing?

pam sheyne

Sure, sure.

astead hearndon

Pam approached one of the tables where several women were sitting.

woman

Hi, there.

pam sheyne

I had to tell everybody.

woman

How are you?

pam sheyne

Guys, I’m bringing a petition today to everybody. So this is to put on the ballot for all Arizonans. You don’t have to be a Republican, a Democrat or Independent. It’s for all women who are here tonight. So if you want to sign, this to put the law on the books for us to have rights back and turn the rights back over so that we have rights for abortion. So you only have to be a registered Mojave voter. So if anybody’d like to sign, I have it here.

bunco player 1

I would.

bunco player 2

Gorgeous.

bunco player 3

It is.

bunco player 4

I need to get my glasses.

[laughs]

I can’t see shit.

bunco player 5

What exactly —

astead hearndon

When they passed around the petition —

pam sheyne

Nobody’s first name, but everyone —

astead hearndon

— the group’s ideological diversity became clear.

bunco player 6

Nobody judges nobody.

pam sheyne

That’s right. When you have that right, and everybody else should have the right, too, right?

bunco player 7

OK, I’ll sign it.

astead hearndon

Some signed immediately.

pam sheyne

You don’t have to, it’s all right.

bunco player 8

I know.

astead hearndon

Some people passed. And when Caitlin followed up with women in both groups, their reasoning was both political and very personal.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

bunco player 9

To me, killing any life is against what I believe.

bunco player 10

It’s your body. You should have the right to choose. This should have never been taken away.

bunco player 11

But if you’re in the heat of passion and you spread your legs and you get pregnant and then, oh shoot, I didn’t want that baby — you gave up your right to control your whole body once you have another baby in there.

bunco player 12

I signed the paper for abortion because I have a granddaughter that was very sick during her pregnancy in Bullhead City two years ago. And the doctor could not perform abortion. The baby died inside of her before they could take it out. And it’s very sad. I’m hoping that the abortion become legal, specially for certain case.

astead hearndon

Their beliefs about abortion did sometimes align with the traditional partisan split on the issue. But for a number of women in this red pocket of a purple state, that was not the case.

caitlin o'keefe

What’s your name?

judy

Judy McClanahan.

caitlin o'keefe

Nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin. So when Pam came around with the petition, what did you do?

judy

Signed.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you tell me why?

judy

Because I believe women should have the right to an abortion or not.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with the most?

judy

Republican. I’m 100 percent for Donald Trump. And I think Joe Biden has done everything he could to ruin our country.

caitlin o'keefe

Are you planning on voting in November?

judy

Oh, yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you feel in line with your party on abortion?

judy

No, no. I don’t look at it politically. I look at it as a woman. And even if the Democrats are for it and the Republicans aren’t, that doesn’t sway my opinion.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you so much for talking to me. I really appreciate it.

judy

Sure, anytime.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you. And can I ask you all my questions now?

gail ann

You can ask me questions, but I don’t like to talk about politics.

caitlin o'keefe

Can you introduce yourself?

gail ann

My name is Gail Ann Maxim.

caitlin o'keefe

So when the signature page came around, what did you do?

gail ann

I signed it because I think it’s — women should be able to make a choice whether they can get an abortion or not. I don’t think that the government should be telling them they can’t, and it’s against the law. Yeah.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with?

gail ann

You know, I’m signed up Democrat. But normally if I vote, I vote for what I feel is right. I don’t always go along with a Democrat, no.

caitlin o'keefe

Are you planning on voting in November or do you think you will?

gail ann

Yeah. I need to vote because every vote counts, so yes.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you know who you would vote for at this point?

gail ann

You know what? I’m going to vote for other stuff, but I don’t think I’m going to vote for a president, because I don’t want either one.

caitlin o'keefe

So if abortion does get on the ballot, do you think you would vote on that issue?

gail ann

Yes, I would.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you so much.

gail ann

You’re welcome.

caitlin o'keefe

Thank you.

astead hearndon

The last person she talked to —

sherry

Sherry.

caitlin o'keefe

Sherry, it’s nice to meet you. I’m Caitlin.

sherry

Hi, Caitlin.

astead hearndon

— was a woman named Sherry.

sherry

I’m not against it, because I feel that you should have a choice. It’s your body. And I would hope that they would use good common sense and do it because there’s a reason to do it, not just because, oh, I don’t want a baby. It’s just so hard to say because you’re not in that person’s life. You don’t know what all the circumstances are. We can sit here and say, oh, well, she should do this, this and this. But you don’t know.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there a political party that you identify with?

sherry

Not really. I just — I really don’t know. I look at both sides. My one son is very, very liberal — very liberal. And my husband is very conservative, so we don’t talk too much about it.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you usually vote?

sherry

I used to. I didn’t last year. I’m going to try to this year, yeah.

caitlin o'keefe

What changed? Was there a thing that changed?

sherry

No, just — I think life just kind of got in the way. And the ballot came and then we had a different address, and this and that. But I need to do that. I really do, I know that.

caitlin o'keefe

Is there an issue that’s most important to you?

sherry

[SIGHS]: That’s a big one that we’re talking about.

caitlin o'keefe

Abortion?

sherry

Yes, definitely. And I don’t know. There’s so much out there going on right now with the taxes and this and that. And I — I don’t know. I like to think I’m pretty liberal, too. But then moving out here was kind of a little change for us.

caitlin o'keefe

When you say abortion is one that matters for you, what do you look for in a politician on abortion? Like, what do you believe about it, and what are you hoping to see in your government?

sherry

Well, I would hope he would put that, like you said on the ballot, where there’s women’s rights, for one thing, that we have a choice. But like I said, you don’t know what someone’s going through. And I hate to say, oh, yeah, I’m pro-life, and then stand there and say, you shouldn’t have done that because — it’s got to be a choice.

It’s your body, you know? And I was not married and I got pregnant and I went to Planned Parenthood. And I got this wonderful lady — and I was not young. So it wasn’t like, I can handle this. And I said, I don’t know what to do. And she said, it’s your choice. It’s your body, she said. So you have to decide. And don’t let him tell you, you should do this, this. It’s not happening to him.

And that always kind of stuck with me. Because it’s so true. I think that’s what happens to women. Their partner will say, we just can’t do this. You better go do that. Well, that’s wrong. That’s up to her.

caitlin o'keefe

What did you do?

sherry

Kept him. Yeah, he travels all over the world. Just has a wonderful life. Yeah. And I’m so proud for him to do that. And he makes a difference, being a teacher. So, you’ve got — each individual is going to be so different. It can be their age. They can be — if they’re 10 years old or 12 years old, yeah. Let’s think about this, and the quality of life that that baby’s going to have, or the mama’s going to have.

caitlin o'keefe

If you had to choose between Trump and Biden, do you know what you would do?

sherry

[EXHALES]: That’s a tough one.

[chuckles]

I try to listen to both sides of it. I guess I’d have to say Trump, because he just seems — not even all his — what he stands for and some of the things he says are just really not what I would think of. But Biden just seems, I hate to say it, kind of old. And I just feel like that’s not good for our country.

caitlin o'keefe

Do you feel like Trump is where you are on abortion?

sherry

I don’t follow him that much. I almost feel like, if it’s on a given day, [LAUGHS]: you know? Well, maybe that sounds good today. We’re going to get this and this. And then tomorrow, I’m going to change my mind. I feel like he can be very, very edgy, I guess, is a good word.

caitlin o'keefe

And so it seems like what you’re saying is there’s a world where in November, you might vote for Trump, and then you might also vote for this abortion initiative.

sherry

Yes, that’s true.

caitlin o'keefe

All right. I think that’s all I got. Thank you so much for talking to me.

sherry

I have my thoughts on it. But like I said, it’s just — I don’t know. It’s kind of hard. Like she said, our women’s rights. And I like to think back in the day, I would be one that would be out there really holding my little stick up, or whatever. Because women were, and still are, treated differently, unfortunately. And they’ll say oh, no. No, we are not equal. We just aren’t. And it shows. When push comes to shove and it gets down to the bottom line, we are not.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

astead hearndon

Sherry’s experience speaks to why abortion rights attracts such a broad coalition of support, and why the proposed ballot measure gives Democrats a unique opportunity to have one message that both motivates its base and appeals to the other side. Still, as the women of Bunco club illustrate, support for abortion rights doesn’t always translate to enthusiasm for the top of the ticket, much less for Joe Biden.

But there’s another, more subtle way that the presence of abortion rights on the ballot could help Democrats, beyond driving turnout or enthusiasm. It serves as a constant reminder of Republican extremism, considering it’s Donald Trump who got “Roe” overturned in the first place. And the party is yet to figure out its own position on the issue. That’s next week.

[GENTLE MUSIC]

[QUIET UPBEAT MUSIC]

That’s “The Run-Up” for Thursday, June 13th, 2024. And now, the rundown. Arizona is one of many places where abortion access is top-of-mind in 2024. So I figured this week, the rundown could zoom out a little to better understand the broader landscape of abortion rights in the rest of the country. And to do so, I called on an expert.

lisa lerer

I’m Lisa Lerer. I’m a national political correspondent at “The New York Times,” and I’m the author of a new book called “The Fall Of Roe and The Rise of a New America.”

astead hearndon

My colleague Lisa Lerer is a leading political reporter who focuses a lot of her work, and her new book, on chronicling how abortion access has changed.

lisa lerer

Our book really looks at what we call the final decade of the “Roe” era. Because that’s when — obviously, this is a 50 year fight by the anti-abortion movement. But it’s in that final decade that their efforts really start just increasing and intensifying. And then, of course, they hitched their star to Donald Trump, and he gets three Supreme Court justices. And so we really got behind the scenes on both the political and legal strategy that allowed their movement to accomplish this.

astead hearndon

Can you talk me through just what the state of abortion access is, and specifically how it relates to 2024 and November?

lisa lerer

Well, abortion has been restricted or banned in a little under half the country. I believe it’s about 21 states or so right now. That’s been going on since, of course, the Supreme Court ruling that got rid of “Roe.” In some of those states, the bans are in current litigation — so they’re in the court system.

In some of those states, abortion is just completely banned, places like Texas or Mississippi, where it has been completely criminalized. Those states cover the entire southeast, really, and parts of the west. And Biden has promised, of course, he’s made a central promise of his campaign to restore “Roe,” saying he’ll restore federal abortion rights.

That’s something that’s very hard to do. It will require 60 votes in the Senate, which is unlikely Democrats will have, or upending the filibuster to do it, which they also don’t have the votes to have — to do. So Democrats have really turned their attention and abortion rights supporters to going state by state and getting these ballot measures on the ballot and put in front of voters. And they’ve had some success so far with those efforts.

astead hearndon

Yeah. What are other states other than Arizona, where abortion could matter this November? Is there anywhere else where it’s on the ballot, quite literally?

lisa lerer

So there’s as many as a dozen states or so where they’re considering getting these things on the ballot. And abortion rights supporters are trying to get these measures on the ballot. A lot of them are really in flux. There’s court challenges to getting them on. There’s complicated processes. Every state has different processes to get them on.

Arizona is certainly a central focus of the political world because it’s such a pivotal swing state, and it has so many competitive races. People are also pretty focused on Florida because that’s historically — although it’s less of a swing state now — it’s historically been one.

And what some Biden campaign folks have told me is those states also have outsized resonance beyond the politics of their specific state. Because they think what the measures in those two states signal to voters is abortion bans and restrictions are not just an issue in these very conservative places like Mississippi, like Alabama.

They’re something that’s a national issue, and that’s also impacting states that voters may not expect as much — a place like Arizona or Florida — to have those kinds of laws.

astead hearndon

Gotcha. It seems as if abortion is playing two roles for Democrats right now. It is both a tangible issue that has a very literal effect for voters. And because it’s been returned to the state, they can message specifically about its impact on your lives. And it also seems like it fits into a kind of broader messaging thing that they’re doing, painting Republicans as extreme and out of touch. And it feels like for those efforts, abortion is also a critical piece.

lisa lerer

Yes. And I think they’ve hit their stride, in some ways, on how they’ve messaged it.

astead hearndon

What do you mean?

lisa lerer

Well, for a long time, Democrats talked about abortion as healthcare. And what the data showed is that people really didn’t see abortion as healthcare. They didn’t think it was the same as going to get a root canal or whatever.

What they do see it as — and there’s been a lot of focus groups and polling and sort of political research on this — is an issue of freedom, of whether you have the right to control your body, to control your family, to make decisions about your own personal choices.

And that’s really the message that Democrats have embraced just up and down the ballot. And what we’ve seen, at least in these sort of two test cases that we’ve had since “Roe” fell, which, of course, were the 2022 midterms and these gubernatorial races in ‘23, is that it’s been a powerful message for them.

And it’s one that also cuts into sort of Republican messaging, that they have tried to frame themselves up as the party of freedom. And Democrats can kind of cut into that a little bit here.

astead hearndon

Got it. Thanks so much. We appreciate your time.

lisa lerer

Thanks for having me. There are 32 days to the Republican National Convention, 67 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 145 days until the General Election. We’ll see you next week.

[UPBEAT JAZZ MUSIC]

astead hearndon

“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon and produced by Alyssa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Ittoop.

It was mixed by Sophia Lanman and fact checked by Will Pichel. Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, and Elizabeth Bristow.

Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at [email protected]. Or better yet, record your question using the voice memo app in your phone. That email again is [email protected]. Thanks for listening, y’all.


Reporting from Phoenix

Arizona is a battleground state that both parties are desperate to win in November.

And right now, supporters of abortion rights in the state are in the midst of gathering signatures to ensure that, along with the presidential race and a competitive Senate contest, enshrining the right to abortion in the state’s Constitution will be on the ballot this fall.

The measure has broad support in the state, and Democrats are banking on that to drive a wide range of people to the polls to vote on the ballot measure — and, they hope, for Mr. Biden. But there’s no guarantee that will happen.

For the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could shape the 2024 election in Arizona.

This week: We’re with volunteers around the state — at a trailhead outside Phoenix and at Bunco night in Bullhead City — who are working to get the measure on the ballot, and we spoke with the people who were supporting their efforts.

Image
Members of Arizona for Abortion Access, which backs the ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s Constitution, at a protest condemning Arizona House Republicans and the 1864 abortion ban in April in Phoenix.Credit...Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. Through on-the-ground reporting and conversations with colleagues from The New York Times, newsmakers and voters across the country, our host, Astead W. Herndon, takes us beyond the horse race to explore how we came to this moment in American politics. New episodes on Thursdays.


“The Run-Up” is hosted by Astead W. Herndon and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe and Anna Foley. The show is edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin. Engineering by Sophia Lanman and original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman and Elisheba Ittoop. Fact-checking by Will Peischel.

Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda and Maddy Masiello.

Astead W. Herndon is a national politics reporter and the host of the politics podcast “The Run-Up.” More about Astead W. Herndon

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