The Right Kind of Tipping Point

Amid a deluge of terrifying headlines about destructive tornadoes, blistering heat waves and DVD-sized gorilla hail, here’s a surprising bit of good news: Global carbon dioxide emissions may have peaked last year, according to a new projection.

It’s worth dwelling on the significance of what could be a remarkable inflection point.

For centuries, the burning of coal, oil and gas has produced huge volumes of planet-warming gasses. As a result, global temperatures rose by an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than at the dawn of the industrial age, and extreme weather is becoming more frequent.

But we now appear to be living through the precise moment when the emissions that are responsible for climate change are starting to fall, according to new data by BloombergNEF, a research firm. This projection is in roughly in line with other estimates, including a recent report from Climate Analytics.

Thanks to the rapid build-out of wind and solar power plants, particularly in China, global emissions from the power sector are set to decline this year. Last year, the amount of renewable energy capacity added globally jumped by almost 50 percent, according to the International Energy Agency.

And with the rise of electric vehicles and heat pumps, similar gains are anticipated in the transportation sector and residential buildings.

Forecasting emissions is an inexact science. Greenhouse gas levels fell during the Covid-19 pandemic, then spiked as the world emerged from lockdown. Other wild cards, such as melting permafrost or huge wildfires, could further scramble projections. Nevertheless, the data suggests that after centuries of growth, humans are finally on the cusp of reducing the overall production of heat-trapping gases.