Is there really such a thing as a "shy Trump voter"? Who is contacted to take part in pre-election polls? And are those polls reliable or not?

In an election week edition of Politics Friday, MPR News politics editor Mike Mulcahy talks all things polling with APM Research Lab managing partner Craig Helmstetter.

Mulcahy is also joined by two local journalists to unpack this busy political week.

Guest:

• Craig Helmstetter is the managing partner at APM Research Lab.

• Tim Pugmire covers politics for MPR News.

• Briana Bierschbach covers politics for the Star Tribune.

The candidates for Congress in Minnesota’s 7th and 8th districts debated the major issues on this week’s Politics Friday with host Mike Mulcahy.

They’re Minnesota’s two largest districts in land area. The 7th District covers a huge swath of western Minnesota, from the Canadian border south nearly to Iowa.

The 8th District is another huge district in northern Minnesota running from the Canadian border to the counties just north of the Twin Cities.

In the first part of the hour we heard from the 8th District candidates: Republican incumbent Rep. Pete Stauber and his challenger, DFLer Quinn Nystrom.

In the second half, we heard from the 7th District candidates: incumbent DFL Rep. Collin Peterson and his challenger, Republican Michelle Fischbach.

Have questions leading up to the Election Day? #AskMPRNews. We want to hear your stories, too. #TellMPRNews what is motivating you to get out and vote this year.

Updated: 3:15 p.m.

With Election Day less than three weeks away, Politics Friday with MPR News political editor Mike Mulcahy continued the series of 2020 congressional debates. The front-runners in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts took part in the telephone debates Friday.

In the 1st District, which stretches east to west along the Iowa border, incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn and Democrat Dan Feehan are in a rematch after Hagedorn narrowly won the seat in 2018.

The two candidates in the 1st District sparred over the state and federal government’s response to the pandemic.

Feehan criticized the federal government for lacking a national plan to address the pandemic.

"We are nine months in in what has been a abject failure at the federal level and of Congress to develop and execute a national strategy for what is a national problem,” Feehan said. “We are going to continue to struggle and right now … literally every state around us is doing worse. And we are entering a third peak of this. We are stunted as a nation, our health is stunted, our economy is stunted, our lives are stunted.”

Hagedorn, on the other hand, ripped DFL Gov. Tim Walz's response, which included closing some businesses for a time.

"The lockdown policies of the governor have hurt more than they've helped,” Hagedorn said. “We need to open up this state, get people back in schools, we can do it safely, look out for those most vulnerable but let the younger people, who have about a 99.9 something percent chance of survival, get out and do their business.”

The two also disagreed on whether Minnesotans should be required to wear face coverings in indoor public places.

"I think that individuals and private entities should make their own decisions," Hagedorn said.

Feehan suggested the mandate is in the interest of public health, saying “when it comes to masks it has been clearly shown that it prevents further spread."

Ethics and campaign finance violation charges have also been flying back-and-forth in the race and came up again during Friday’s debate. So did other topics like the farm economy, and health care.  

In the 3rd District, which encompasses much of the western Twin Cities suburbs, Republican Kendall Qualls is challenging incumbent DFL Rep. Dean Phillips.

During their first debate Friday, Phillips defended his claim that he's politically moderate against claims otherwise from Qualls. Phillips defeated long-time Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen two years ago and pledged to work with Democrats and Republicans.

Qualls claimed Phillips has not done that.

"When you look at the voting record you'll see that my opponent aligns himself with the far left of his party,” he said.

Phillips defended himself, saying that he voted against the latest Democratic-controlled House pandemic relief bill.

"I am one of 25 Democrats and 25 Republicans who joined the House Problems Solvers Caucus and we are building bridges across partisan divides,” said Phillips.

The two also sparred over health care. Phillips said he wants to allow people to buy into government-run health care programs.

"The Affordable Care Act — Obamacare — was the best policy we had in our generation to expand care to more Americans. I favor the private and nonprofit delivery of care in America and I always will,” Phillips said. “I believe in a public option. It combines conservative thinking with liberal thinking. That we should have more freedom to choose and more competition.”

Qualls said such a "public option" would hurt federal programs and weaken private insurance markets.

“We need to focus on competition. For the last 10 years we've had hospitals as well as health plans consolidated,” he said. “Whenever you have consolidation in the marketplace, you have increased prices and then lastly it leads to affordability. We plan on covering those with preexisting conditions and we want to make sure we have a safety net for those who can't access or can't afford affordable health.”

Use the audio player above to listen to the full debates on Politics Friday.

What’s being done to confront the coronavirus and stem the economic fallout from the pandemic is central to this year’s election campaigns. That was clear when the candidates in Minnesota’s 2nd and 6th Congressional Districts met in separate MPR News debates Friday.

Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is seeking a second term in the 2nd District, which covers suburban counties and some rural areas south of the Twin Cities.

She said the lack of a national approach has been an “abject failure” and kept the country in a troubled place for too long.

“In order to get people back to work, to reopen the economy, to get kids back to school, we’re going to need a federal strategy to suppress the virus,” Craig said. “What that means in practice is not what we’ve been seeing from this administration. We need testing. We need contact tracing. And we need isolation strategies. That’s not what we’ve seen.”

Craig said it’s essential that Congress pass more relief for idled workers, state and local governments and other entities upended by the pandemic and economic fallout.

Her Republican challenger Tyler Kistner said he supports more federal rescue steps, but in a more-limited fashion.

“The place we need to be focused is on providing relief to those who are most affected by this virus,” he said. “As I went across this district and talked to the families across every corner of the 2nd District and talked to the small businesses, they’re the ones who need the relief. They’re not looking for a bailout. And what we’re seeing in Washington is just finger-pointing.”

The 6th District, which runs across some northern suburbs and into St. Cloud, is deemed less politically competitive.

Republican Rep. Tom Emmer, who is after a fourth term, said there’s a need for more help but leaders also need to keep an eye on budget deficits and the national debt.

“But I’ll tell you. It was tough for me. It was the Hobson’s choice when we talked about the CARES Act. I believe we did the right thing,” Emmer said. “And I believe a strong economy, which is what we’re going to have next year when it comes back, once we have a vaccine for this virus. … Guess what, you’re going to see a recovery like we expect and we’ve never seen before.”

DFL challenger Tawnja Zahradka came hard at Emmer for playing politics with the relief as a member of Republican House leadership.

She said too many people are in financial trouble because expanded unemployment benefits expired and other aid is in limbo.

“I would support getting the $600 into people’s hands. For these people that are in office right now to stand up and say, ‘that’s going to keep people from going back to work.’ Really?” Zahradka said. “That’s going to keep food on the table. That’s going to keep a roof over their heads. That’s going to keep people in their homes and not out on the streets fighting COVID. And people are sick of it.”

The two debates were separately moderated by Politics Friday host and MPR News political editor Mike Mulcahy on Friday.

Use the audio player above to listen to the debates on Politics Friday.

Have questions leading up to the Election Day? #AskMPRNews. We want to hear your stories, too. #TellMPRNews what is motivating you to get out and vote this year.

With just over a month to go until the election and on the day President Donald Trump tweeted that he had tested positive for COVID-19, the two top candidates for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat disagreed on how to best respond to the pandemic.

Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., and her Republican challenger, former U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis met virtually for a debate on MPR News.

Democrats and Republicans need to work together on comprehensive legislation to help individuals, small businesses and others, Smith said.

“We need to get help to our schools and to state and local governments,” she said. “We need a national testing strategy.”

Lewis accused Smith and other Democrats of opposing Republican assistance plans because Republicans would not agree to add on COVID-19 items.

“Facts are stubborn things, Senator,” he said. “You voted against three COVID packages that would have aid go directly to Minnesotans not to state government, not to other governmental organizations but right to Minnesotans.” 

Smith defended her votes, saying she rejected inadequate legislation until the two sides worked together to strengthen an aid package.

Highlighting civil unrest in response to police killings and pushing a law and order message has been a central theme of Lewis’ campaign against Smith, and he criticized her again on the issue during the debate for supporting legislation that would change the way police can be personally held accountable for misconduct.

“There is a real problem when your government doesn’t back law enforcement,” Lewis said. “I do, and once you don’t back law enforcement then the word gets out pretty quick to people who want to do damage to life, liberty and property.”

Smith rejected a contention by Lewis that she supports defunding the police and said she supports a federal use of force standard and a national registry of police misconduct.

“I support common sense reforms that are going to bring more accountability and more transparency and more justice to policing,” she said.

On climate change, Smith said Minnesota could be a leader in green energy innovation. Lewis said Smith’s focus on protecting the environment amounts to a job-killing war on fossil fuels.

When the issue of confirming President Trump's Supreme Court nominee came up, Smith refused to say whether she would support expanding the number of justices on the high court. Some Democrats have argued their party should move to pack the court by adding more liberal justices next year if Democrats win control of the Senate and White House.

“I am just not going to go there,” Smith said. “I have no idea what the world is going to look like. I think what we should be focused on right now is what is at stake with this Supreme Court nomination.”

Smith cited the future of abortion rights and Affordable Care Act benefits such as the ban on charging people more for health insurance if they have preexisting health conditions. 

“You don’t get to be a senator from Minnesota without telling people what you’re going to do,” Lewis responded. “Tina Smith is pulling a Joe [Biden] here, ‘Well, I’m not going to go there.’ That’s not an answer.”

The two candidates rounded off their discussion with disagreement over immigration policy.  Local governments are overburdened with refugees who are not fleeing persecution, Lewis said.

“We can’t go around abolishing ICE, getting rid of the border patrol and having open borders which you have been advocating,” he said. “America cannot sustain that.”

“I have never said I was for open borders. That is ridiculous,” Smith responded. “To suggest that immigrants in Minnesota or around this country are a burden to be borne, rather than contributors, taxpayers, entrepreneurs is all wrong for Minnesota."

Updated: Sept. 25 1:49 p.m.

The presidential race isn't the only one on the November ballot. Every voter in Minnesota will get to make a choice for state representative and state senator.

Right now control of the Legislature is divided with a Republican majority in the Senate and a DFL majority in the House. That could change next year depending on the choices you make, and that could have a big impact on how Minnesota reacts to the pandemic, how it balances the state budget, which programs get funding and which don't.

On Politics Friday, the leaders of the Minnesota House and Senate join MPR News political editor Mike Mulcahy to lay out their positions on the issues and make the case for why they should control the agenda at the State Capitol in 2021.

Guests:

• Part 1: Senate GOP Majority Leader Paul Gazelka and Senate DFL Minority Leader Susan Kent.

• Part 2: House DFL Speaker Melissa Hortman and House GOP Minority Leader Kurt Daudt.

On the state’s COVID-19 response and virus restrictions

The level of government restrictions to fight COVID-19 is a flashpoint in Minnesota legislative races.

The top Minnesota House Republican says DFL Gov. Tim Walz has gone too far in cutting lawmakers out of the state’s coronavirus strategy.

House Minority Leader Kurt Daudt said if his party wins the majority in November, they’ll push for a more tailored approach to slowing the COVID-19 spread. He said containment strategies should be focused more on big-risk areas such as nursing homes.

“COVID is here. It’s not going away immediately or anytime soon. It’s important that we learn to live with it,” Daudt said. “And I think we’ve done a better job of that recently. But I think we’re best and strongest in Minnesota when we work together.”

DFL House Speaker Melissa Hortman said the lack of a coherent national strategy has made the coronavirus situation worse than it should have been.

State Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka and Minority Leader Susan Kent also aired differences about the right approach. Kent, a DFLer from Woodbury, agreed with the steps Walz has taken to combat the virus.

“We need to manage this virus carefully and safely,” Kent said. “We need to have people wearing masks to protect each other and we need to have good testing and tracing and make sure that we are providing support to people when they are exposed to this virus so we can stop the spread as we’ve seen in countries around the world.”

Gazelka, a Republican from East Gull Lake, said Minnesota needs to do a better job of managing the virus without halting most facets of society.

“So I’m not saying just expose everybody that that’s the direction,” he said. “But we should not make people overly afraid and say millions and millions of people will die when in the United States 200,000 people have died.”

Gazelka said Walz should relinquish his emergency authority and involve legislators in more decisions around the coronavirus.

On public safety

House Speaker Hortman said Republican opponents are misleading the public about where her party’s candidates stand on support for police.

“[Support includes] adequate funding for our local governments so they can afford strong public safety. And just this year, with testing the untested rape kits. Providing the Department of Corrections all the resources they need to keep our prisons operating,” Hortman said on Politics Friday. “Republicans won’t stand up and pay for the public safety they claim that they support.”

House Minority Leader Daudt said voters shouldn’t trust DFLers to prioritize public safety if they retain the House majority. Hortman said DFLers have firmly backed collective bargaining for police officers and state assistance to cities.

Daudt said public safety is a top issue in this campaign. He says police unions have rescinded some endorsements of DFL legislators because they have more trust in his party’s candidates.

The Minnesota Legislature is back in special session as Gov. Tim Walz once again extended his peacetime emergency by 30 more days. The governor first invoked the emergency power in March to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic when the virus started to hit Minnesota. 

Walz said he is using the emergency authority to procure supplies quicker, to carry out a mask mandate, to foster an expansion of coronavirus testing and to head off evictions for those in financial distress amid the pandemic. Republicans argue that the emergency has gone on too long, saying the Legislature needs to again be on equal footing with the governor. The GOP-controlled Senate is expected to vote to end the emergency power, while the DFL-led House supports the extension during this special session.

Six months after Walz first declared the peacetime emergency, where is Minnesota in the response to the pandemic and what will the next few months bring? On this week’s Politics Friday, MPR News host Mike Mulcahy talked with Walz, discussing some of the pressing issues in Minnesota and taking listener questions from around the state. 

Use the audio player above to listen to the program. The following interview transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Back in March and April, the goal of the peacetime emergency was to give the state time to build reserves and protective equipment, hospital space, ICU intensive care capacity. What's the goal of the emergency action now?

When COVID-19 started emerging — and I think in early January, many of us were hearing it for the first time — what we knew about it was relatively limited. We didn't know exactly the way transmission happened. But we witnessed in Italy, in China, and then in New York City just how quickly it could overwhelm the health care system. So we took those precautions to make sure that if folks did get COVID-19 that they would be cared for.

But as this started to evolve, what we understood was [that] it was striking more people. And that the goal — both here, states across the country and then internationally — was to slow the spread by using what we were learning about COVID-19, by washing hands, social distancing, wearing masks, limiting indoor interactions.

Our goal remains the same: To protect the health and welfare of Minnesotans to use the best health data, that we have to strike a proper balance to make sure that economic activities that can be done safely, education of our children can be done safely. 

Minnesota is a bit of an island right now. The states around us have what Dr. [Deborah] Birx called “uncontrolled spread.” We are not at that point. And that's because Minnesotans have — for the most part — done what they needed to do to slow it.

How will you decide when it's time to end the emergency?

Very early on, we set dial-back measures based on the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and working with Mayo Clinic and some of the leading institutes around health, to try to put out some metrics. One of the things we measure is positivity rate. 

If you get above 5 percent, it starts to be worried because this thing exponentially grows; you get above 10 percent, and it becomes uncontrollable. Minnesota has hovered around 5 percent for the better part of the last two months.

The next thing is how many tests we’re able to administer. We have to be able to administer as a minimum 100 tests per 10,000 and we're hovering closer to 200 on that so we're pretty solid there. New cases per 100,000 [residents], we’re about 12.4.

Community spread, and this is the real tricky one. If you get above 20 percent, it starts to become a real problem. That means people getting it from, they don't know where. It makes it hard to trace exactly where it came from. We’re at 34 percent there, and that's somewhat troubling. And then, of course, hospitalizations. You get above four, you start to look at it with caution. We’re at about 5.5.

So those are measures that we use. And based on all the best health data, if we could get those below those numbers where they're at, transmission of this slows dramatically. And then you just take basic steps of washing your hands, wearing the mask when you’re around people, and you should be able to carry on a lot of these activities.

But again, those who claim that you just open up and then everything will work out, that is the surest way to close down businesses. It's the surest way that spread will go.

Republicans in the Legislature say there's no need to extend your emergency powers and that Minnesotans should be trusted to decide for themselves what steps to take to prevent the spread of the virus. How do you respond to that?

Certainly, I think Minnesotans can be trusted. But it's more than that. And we've seen this with the mask of people saying, you know, I feel like it's my right not to do this, which is one thing and we certainly protect our individual freedoms in this country and stand by them. But that has a major impact. 

The [Lyon County] wedding is a great example. I want to be clear, not being able to hold a wedding is horrific for people. These are life events that really matter. We're not doing this because we don't want to see people enjoy life. We're doing it because we know that if you don't put these measures in place, [an outbreak] will happen.

Listener question: President Trump is going to hold a rally in Minnesota next week. And based on past rallies and other states, it’s likely that few attendees will wear a mask and follow social distancing rules. How will the state enforce the mask mandate at such a rally? ~ Sarah of Rockford, Minn.

We are asking the administration will continue to ask to follow the rules that every Minnesotan is following. These are not arbitrary. They're actually the rules that are put out by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention that the president oversees. States have the authority to put these in. 

And we're going to ask people to follow them — not because we're trying to limit their personal freedoms, but because we're trying to protect our neighbors and make sure that we don't spread COVID-19. This is about caring for our neighbors. This is about following science and process. 

I understand very clearly: if I put a mass mandate out, we don't have enough people to enforce that everywhere — just like so many things, we don't have enough State Patrol to enforce speeding everywhere, but most people follow the law because they don't want to kill their neighbors. And our hope would be that people who attend this rally — and I encourage them to do so. If you're a supporter of the president, attend if that works, but just follow the rules that we have and there are ample opportunities in outdoor spaces.

Is there any thought to increase the amount of indoor dining that's allowed with the cold weather coming on?

I want to make sure I name it that there had been no industry hit harder during this than the hospitality industry. Restaurants, bars, large venue events, musical venues; They have paid a heavy price in this. One of the problems is it's just so dependent on volume. They're exactly the type of environments that show the spread of COVID-19. 

Dr. Birx made the suggestion that we turn back the dial and close more restaurants and bars. We in Minnesota think we're able to manage this with some smart policies on capacity limits, masking and some of those other things. As I said, if we turn the corner on this, if we start to see case positivity rates drop, if we're able to contact-trace and isolate quicker, those are when we can turn the dials to open more. And again, I think the idea that the Republican Senate is making that this is some type of arbitrary decision rather than a decision based on the way the virus is pushing this, that's what's wrong.

But I think it's worth noting that it appears like there are glimmers in data points that show that something is happening that we're doing better, especially when you look to the state surrounding us, much different positivity rates, much different infection rates.

What impact do you think the May 25 killing of George Floyd and the aftermath have had on the state of Minnesota? 

Certainly, the destruction of property in the civil unrest [was] not positive. The conversation, the folks on the street expressing their First Amendment rights and in many cases, their anger at a system that does not serve them well or people of color — that was a positive.

I just want to be very clear that I think a lot of people want the riots to go away. They maybe want the question to go away. I think there's a lot of and I certainly do not ever speak for communities of color, I just relay whereas they speak to me. They feel that we made incremental small changes in a good direction. But there's so much more yet to be done. 

And I am concerned every time the attorney general and the defendants go into court like they are today about what can come out of that because I think the tensions and the underlying systemic issues are still there. I think certainly in Minneapolis, the frayed trust between the police and those that they protect is still there. And we have a long way to go.

You can hear Politics Friday on MPR News at 11 a.m. and 9 p.m. every Friday between now and the election.

In this special edition of Politics Friday, MPR News political editor Mike Mulcahy previews Tuesday’s primary election in Minnesota.

There are a few competitive primaries for seats in Congress — including the 5th District DFL race and the 7th District Republican contest. There are also some interesting legislative primaries in which sitting lawmakers face challenges from within their own parties.

But it’s not politics as usual in Minnesota, as early voting numbers have spiked due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mulcahy talks with Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon about the early voting process and what it will mean for counting ballots on primary night.

Mulcahy also talks with North News editor Harry Colbert Jr. about what 5th District residents are hearing from the DFL candidates. Political analysts Todd Rapp and Maureen Shaver run down all the interesting races and look ahead to November.

Guests:

• Steve Simon is Minnesota’s Secretary of State.

• Harry Colbert Jr. is the editor of North News.

• Maureen Shaver is a lobbyist with Shaver Public Affairs.

• Todd Rapp is the president and CEO of the public relations firm Rapp Strategies.

Use the audio player above to listen to the program.

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