NEW YORK (PIX11) — Two weeks before Election Day, a new poll shows Westchester County Executive George Latimer is leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman in what has become a heated primary in the Bronx and Westchester County.
Exclusive independent polling from PIX11, Emerson College and The Hill of likely Democratic primary voters in New York’s 16th Congressional District shows Latimer getting 48% of those surveyed. In the poll, Bowman trails by 17 points at 31%. Of those surveyed, 21% are undecided.
Millions of dollars from outside of the district have poured in ever since Latimer launched his challenge of Bowman, who has served since 2021. That money, the issue of race, delivering for the district, affordability and the Israel-Hamas war have become key issues in the race.
Each candidate also has distinctly different support within NY-16, according to the poll.
Bowman is getting support from 44% of voters under 40 years old in the PIX11 survey. He also got a large plurality of Black voters at 48%. Latimer got 51% of those over the age of 40 and 62% of white voters.
The poll found the top issue being faced in New York is the economy, with 22% of those surveyed saying jobs, inflation and taxes were most important. Housing affordability was the choice of 21% of those surveyed. Fourteen percent selected threats to democracy, 13% said health care and 12% said crime.
On the Israel-Hamas war, more likely Democratic primary voters said they aligned themselves with Latimer than Bowman. Latimer has used more cautious language, while Bowman supports a cease-fire and calls what is happening in Gaza a genocide. Of those surveyed, 45% said they aligned themselves with Latimer, 29% aligned themselves with Bowman, and 26% were unsure.
A slight majority of those polled, just over 50%, also said too much aid was going to Israel. NY-16 Democratic voters were more divided on whether they would support a member of Congress who favors a cease-fire.
Democrats of the largely suburban district were also divided on support of congestion pricing. Gov. Kathy Hochul recently paused the plan to toll drivers entering Manhattan below 60th Street, citing the costs to drivers and the economy. Of those surveyed, 38% of respondents support congestion pricing, 45% oppose it and 17% were unsure.
Methodology:
The New York 16th Congressional District Democratic primary survey was conducted June 6-8, 2024. The sample of likely Democratic primary voters, n=425, has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, and age based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter registration data provided by New York Secretary of State, and voter data provided by Aristotle, Inc. Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), phone lists provided by Aristotle. The survey was offered in English.
