There’s nothing better than having a surprise party thrown for you.
Someone thought of you enough to gather your closest friends and family for a night of merriment that (hopefully) starts by scaring you the second you walk in the door when they yell, “Surprise.”
But what happens after the surprise?
Though the party rages on, the excitement and high of that moment dies down.
People eventually start to leave, and you’re left with a room filled with empty glasses, tons of food and decorations to dispose of.
Surprises don’t last forever, which is why we have to get the most out of them while we can.
Atlanta’s Reynaldo Lopez is 6-2 with a 1.70 ERA, a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 1.109 WHIP.
He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 14 starts — and the one time he allowed exactly three earned runs happened April 30.
He has allowed one run or less nine times, and no runs in five of those outings.
Lopez allowed 15 earned runs over his first 79 ¹/₃ innings and entered Friday with the best ERA in the majors.
He also ranked 22nd in strikeouts per nine innings (9.19), had the 27th-best swinging-strike rate (12 percent), the 23rd-best WHIP and the 18th-best opponents’ average (.211).
The fact we’re halfway through the season with Lopez being ranked among the top pitchers in the league, let alone leading the league in ERA, is already more than fantasy managers (and possibly even the Braves) could have ever imagined — especially from a pitcher who made just 18 starts from 2020-23.
Lopez’s unexpected start is why Roto Rage believes it is time to sell high.
This is a pitcher who was drafted (if he was even selected) as a sleeper, not a star.
The surprise is over, and though Lopez is still partying, the guests are getting ready to leave.
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It is time to strike while the iron is hot.
Why should you act now?
The underlying numbers raise some red flags on Lopez’s long-term effectiveness — like his 30.8 percent hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph average exit velocity, or the fact he entered Friday with the 15th-highest walk rate (8.5 percent) in the majors.
He walked at least one batter in each of his first 14 starts, and walked two or more in eight of those starts.
He walked three or more three times, including issuing four free passes (for the second time this year) on Wednesday.
Lopez’s expected batting average against (.248) is a bit higher than his .211 mark, and his expected ERA (3.97) is more than two points higher than his actual ERA.
Add that to a .279 BABIP, 2.79 FIP and 3.68 xFIP, and you have signs of a pitcher who is due for regression.
Another concern: Lopez already has thrown more innings than he did in any of the past three seasons, when he was primarily a reliever. It is also his most since being a full-time starter in 2019.
(If you want an example of another reliever turned full-time starter who has regressed this season, look at San Francisco’s Jordan Hicks. He was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his first seven starts, but is 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in his past 10 starts, and his 4.47 xERA points to even more regression. His overall numbers are very similar to Lopez.)
Does this mean Lopez will no longer be a viable fantasy starter?
No, you certainly can hold onto him and have a useful rotation piece, but his numbers will not stay this pristine.
That is why, if your team has shortcomings, offering your competition the current ERA leader could land you a stellar return.
Over his first 15 starts, Gavin Stone is 9-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.124 WHIP.
Despite the team behind him, this kind of performance has been far from what was expected of a pitcher who was 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.903 WHIP over eight appearances (four starts in 2023).
With an uninspiring 19.5 percent strikeout rate, 3.60 xERA, .268 BABIP and 4.01 xFIP, the hot start is going to catch up with him.
Strike now.
Sell, sell, sell!
Big hits
Jonathan India 2B, Reds
Entered the weekend on a nine-game hit streak, going 17-for-33 (.515) with a homer, four RBIs, 10 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.427 OPS in that span.
He hit .375 with a 1.015 OPS in his first 24 games this month.
Trevor Megill RP, Brewers
He is 8-for-8 in save chances this month while maintaining a 0.79 ERA, .158 opponents’ average and 17 percent swinging-strike rate.
Willi Castro 2B/SS/3B/OF, Twins
Had a 10-game hit streak entering Friday, going 17-for-42 (.405) with two homers, nine RBIs, 11 runs and a 1.230 OPS in that span.
Francisco Alvarez C, Mets
Hit .556 with three homers, nine RBIs and a 1.037 OPS over an eight-game hit streak he took into Friday.
Hit .415 in his first 15 games off the IL.
Big whiffs
Brandon Pfaadt SP, Diamondbacks
Allowed seven homers in his past six starts while going 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA, .254 opponents’ average, 36 hits and 13 walks.
Nolan Gorman 2B/3B, Cardinals
Despite stealing five bases, homering eight times and driving in 15 runs in 31 games since May 25, he has struck out at least once in 27 of those games (46 times total) and hit .170 with a .620 OPS.
Bobby Miller SP, Dodgers
Is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA over his past four starts while allowing a .346 opponents’ average, four homers and a 10-11 strikeout-walk rate.
Teoscar Hernandez OF, Dodgers
After hitting five homers in five games from June 6-11, he hit .170 with one homer, 16 strikeouts and a .492 OPS in the next 12 games.
Check swings
– After hitting .214 with a .728 OPS over his first 54 games, Brandon Nimmo entered Friday hitting .242 with a .793 OPS after going 35-for-81 (.309) with five homers, 17 RBIs, 21 runs and a .953 OPS in his first 20 games this month.
– Brendan Donovan had at least one RBI in nine of his past 10 games before Friday. In that stretch, he hit .425 with three homers, 12 RBIs, one stolen base and a 1.177 OPS. He hit .326 with four homers and 16 RBIs in his first 23 games this month.
– Since taking a loss on May 21, Carlos Estevez (32.8 percent rostered) didn’t allow an earned run while converting all eight of his save opportunities. He walked none and had a 35.7 percent strikeout rate, a 16 percent swinging-strike rate and .036 opponents’ average in that span.
– Since returning from the IL on May 27, Lane Thomas raised his average from .184 to .243 before Friday after going 33-for-115 (.287) with six homers, 24 RBIs, 24 runs, six stolen bases and a .906 OPS. He is available in almost 40 percent of ESPN leagues.
– Not only did Alec Burleson, the second-most added player in ESPN leagues this week, hit .287 over his first 25 games this month, he was 9-for-22 (..409) with two homers, 11 RBIs, five runs, three stolen bases and a 1.235 OPS in his past nine games before Friday.
Team name of the week
Free Willi
