MacKenzie Gore’s career thus far feels a bit like Aesop’s “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.”
After being the No. 3-overall pick in 2017, the lefty’s name was being shouted from the mountain top, and he made his much-hyped Padres debut in 2022.
After finishing an underwhelming 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.471 WHIP, fantasy managers felt bamboozled as the wolves attacked.
After being a key piece in the deal that sent Juan Soto from the Nationals to San Diego, Gore’s name was again shouted from the mountain top in 2023.
Despite having the 21st-best strikeout rate and 26th-best swinging-strike rate while reducing his walk rate significantly, his overall numbers (7-10, 4.42 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 10 K/9) remained underwhelming.
Again, fantasy managers were mauled by wolves.
When his name was shouted before the 2024 season, no one listened. No one cared.
Fantasy managers weren’t paying attention to him at drafts and certainly aren’t now, not even after a solid start to the season.
He shouldn’t be ignored!
In his first 11 starts, Gore is 4-4 with career-best marks in ERA (2.91) and WHIP (1.278, which is still a bit higher than you would like).
He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts, and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his past seven outings (he is 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA, 45 strikeouts in 38 ²/₃ innings and a 13 percent swinging-strike rate in those starts).
Gore entered Friday ranked eighth in strikeouts per nine (11.05) and 16th in swinging-strike rate.
He also is in the 90th percentile in fastball velocity.
His walk rate, which he reduced from 12 percent in 2022 to 9.8 percent in 2023, has gone down even more in 2024 (a career-low 6.9 percent). He has issued one walk in his past two starts, and he is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 18 strikeouts in those outings.
Also down: Gore homers per nine — from 1.8 per nine (27 total homers) in 2023 to 0.77 HR/9 (five homers) this year. His barrel rate also has been reduced by about 5 percent.
The 25-year-old is throwing harder, with his fastball averaging 96.6 mph. But he also is using that pitch about 5 percent less, as he has upped the usage of his changeup — which has become a weapon with a 43.9 percent whiff rate and 19.6 percent swinging-strike rate.
The Nationals’ schedule doesn’t hurt, with two of his next three starts coming against the Mets and Marlins (and he is in line to face the Mets at least two more times before the All-Star break).
Gore deserves to be rostered in more than 21 percent of ESPN leagues.
Sure, his 3.50 xERA and .353 BABIP point to regression, but that is no reason for this young southpaw with huge strikeout potential to be ignored.
A look at other arms, all rostered in less than 25 percent of ESPN leagues, that deserve some love:
Brandon Pfaadt (24.4 percent) has an xERA (2.88), FIP (3.23) and xFIP (3.65) well below his 4.16 ERA. His 4.4 percent walk rate ranks in the top 10 percent of the league, and he owns a 3.55 ERA (2.73 FIP) with a .221 opponents’ average over his past six starts.
After a favorable matchup with the Mets on Sunday, he will face bottom 10 offenses in the Nats, Twins and A’s over his next five starts.
Cristopher Sanchez (12.7 percent) has allowed more than three earned runs in one start this season, and he was 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 27-7 strikeout-walk rate in five May starts.
He has the second-best groundball rate, a dominant changeup (.183 opponents’ average, 42 percent whiff rate) and underlying numbers that point to improvement. Oh, and he plays for one of the best teams in the game.
In eight starts since April 13, Gavin Stone (22.8 percent) is 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 30 strikeouts and .212 opponents’ average.
He was 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 23-5 strikeout-walk rate in five starts in May, and has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his 10 starts.
His xERA, FIP and xFIP are all slightly higher than his 3.16 ERA, but nothing that would be detrimental to your rotation.
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Two Rays hurlers worth monitoring are Zack Littell (18.8 percent) and Taj Bradley (19.3 percent).
Littell may not rack up wins or strikeouts, but he keeps walks in check (3.8 percent walk rate), owned a 2.80 ERA over his past six starts and has allowed more than two earned runs in a start in three of his first 11 starts.
Bradley has a 3.13 ERA, a reduced walk rate, 32.2 percent strikeout rate and .181 opponents’ average in his first four starts.
Underlying metrics indicate regression, but Roto Rage believes the strikeouts and the 23-year-old’s upside are worth it.
Big Hits
David Fry C/1B/OF, Guardians
The 28-year-old hit .386 with six homers, 15 RBIs, 18 runs, three stolen bases and a 1.233 OPS in his first 20 games in May.
He also walked more than he struck out in that span.
Seth Lugo SP, Royals
Since suffering his first loss on April 21, the former Met is 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA, 52-11 strikeout-walk rate and a .180 opponents’ average.
Masyn Winn SS, Cardinals
Took a 16-game hit streak into Friday, going 23-for-61 (.377) with two homers, 11 RBIs, two stolen bases and a .974 OPS in that span.
Ben Brown SP/RP, Cubs
Struck out 33 over his past six appearances (23 ¹/₃ innings) while going 1-0 with a 1.16 ERA and .138 opponents’ average.
Big whiffs
Riley Greene OF, Tigers
After going deep nine times in his first 35 games, he is homer-less while hitting .176 with 22 strikeouts and a .458 OPS in his past 19.
Kutter Crawford SP, Red Sox
His ERA went from 1.35 on April 26 to 3.29 on Wednesday after going 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA over six May starts.
He is 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA and a .279 opponents’ average in his past four starts.
Brandon Nimmo OF, Mets
Struck out at least once in 10 of his past 11 games (20 times total) while going 7-for-38 (.184) with one extra-base hit (a homer) and a .559 OPS.
Bailey Ober SP, Twins
Allowed three homers in March-April, but gave up three Wednesday and seven in six May starts.
He had a 5.46 ERA for the month.
Check swings
-After hitting .299 with no homers, five RBIs, 22 runs, 11 strikeouts and a .719 OPS in 33 games with Miami, Luis Arraez hit .378 with one homer, eight RBIs, 10 runs, three stolen bases and a .857 OPS in his first 23 games in San Diego. He struck out four times in that span.
-Though Detroit’s Reese Olson has five losses on the season and didn’t pick up his first win until May 25, he entered his start Saturday with a 1.17 ERA and .173 opponents’ average over his previous eight starts. He allowed more than one earned run in two of his first 10 starts and had given up only one homer all season.
-Justin Turner recorded just seven hits in his first 75 plate appearances in May. While hitting .105, he struck out 10 times and had a .319 OPS. He is a career .262 hitter in May, the only month his average has been below .283, so Roto Rage is banking on him rebounding this summer.
-Looking for potential bats to replace Ronald Acuna Jr.? Here are some widely available options to consider: In his first four games back from the IL, Lane Thomas went 6-for-17 (.353) with a homer, three RBIs, four stolen bases and a 1.127 OPS. He is rostered in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues after a sluggish start. Jake Meyers (11 percent rostered) hit .333 with three homers, 14 RBIs, 11 runs, three stolen bases and a .944 OPS in his first 24 games in May. Matt Vierling (12.4 percent) smacked five homers and drove in 21 runs in his first 23 games last month, all while hitting .309 with a .946 OPS. (Four of those homers came in three of his last four games before Friday.) Brenton Doyle (22 percent) — who hit .273 with two homers, seven RBIs, 17 runs, 18-14 strikeout-walk rate, 10 stolen bases and a .839 OPS in his past 19 games before Friday — has the Coors Field factor working for him (he is hitting .330 with 20 runs scored and 10 stolen bases at home).
-Despite his 33.3 percent strikeout rate, which ranks second in the majors, and 3.7 percent walk rate, which was the fifth-lowest mark in the majors, Jack Flaherty is still available in almost 50 percent of ESPN leagues. Yes, he has only one win and a 3.84 ERA, but his xERA (2.76), FIP (2.98) and xFIP (2.03) all point to him being unlucky. He should be rostered.
Team name of the week
Peanut Butter & Hjelle
