In one of the most anticipated second-round matchups in recent NBA postseason history, the Lakers stole Game 1 as underdogs to take an early 1-0 series lead over the Warriors.
Oddsmakers expect a bounce-back effort from the defending champions, who are sizable home favorites ahead of Game 2 even after their series-opening loss.
Can Golden State knot this series at 1-1, or will Los Angeles deliver a second straight upset on the road?
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Warriors vs. Lakers odds
(via BetMGM)
- Warriors -6.5 (-110), moneyline -275
- Lakers +6.5 (-110), moneyline +220
- O/U 227.5 (under -115)
Warriors vs. Lakers prediction and analysis
(9 p.m. ET on ESPN)
After a surprising 117-112 loss for the Warriors in Game 1, the stage is set for the reigning champs to deliver a counterpunch in Game 2 in a place they rarely lose.
Sure enough, the betting market is buying heavily into that narrative: Golden State is dealing as a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, and bettors are backing the Dubs with nearly 70% of bet slips and more than 85% of money wagered in the hours before tip-off.
All of that sounds good on paper. I’m just not sure I buy it.
Yes, the Warriors will surely come out with a vengeance on Thursday after losing the first game of the series for only the fifth time in the Steve Kerr era.
And while the team followed up those first three losses with a win in Game 2, we just saw them drop two straight to the Kings to open Round 1.
And the issues they’re facing in this matchup are even bigger to overcome…literally.
Coming into this series, it was clear that Lakers big man Anthony Davis posed a serious problem for Golden State’s impressive but undersized frontcourt.
We saw that come to fruition in Game 1, when Davis dropped 30 points and 23 rebounds on 57.9% shooting in one of the best playoff games in franchise history.
Yet his impact on the other end was just as significant.
Davis blocked at least four shots for the fifth time in seven postseason games, and the Warriors were 4-of-17 from the floor when Davis contested a shot, which was a key reason why the team shot a meager 41.5% from inside the arc in Tuesday’s loss.
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That just isn’t sustainable for this Golden State offense, which hoisted 53 attempts from long range on Tuesday – tied for the most in a playoff game under Kerr.
That came in sharp contrast to a mere six attempts from the free-throw line, compared to 29 such attempts for the Lakers.
None of this is to say the Warriors can’t win this way, but the drastic clash in styles in Game 1 wasn’t by accident; it was by design.
The Lakers have the size to dominate in this series if given the chance, and I’m skeptical of the Warriors overcoming that massive disadvantage in two days’ time, especially at this price.
Warriors vs. Lakers pick
Lakers +6.5 (-110 BetMGM)