Before this offseason, the Yankees had given three nine-figure free-agent contracts to a pitcher. In each case it was an established ace (though not all in MLB). In each case it has — at least to date — worked out well.
CC Sabathia received a seven-year, $161 million pact after the 2008 season and was central to a 2009 championship. Masahiro Tanaka garnered a seven-year, $155 million deal (plus, the Yankees paid an additional $20 million as a posting fee), and he was a terrific pitcher with a big-game flair. Gerritt Cole still has the record for most money guaranteed to a pitcher with his nine-year, $324 million accord. Though there is a feeling of wanting more, Cole has performed like an ace in his three Yankees seasons.
Now, to the group photo comes Carlos Rodon on a six-year, $162 million contract. He has pitched like an ace the past two seasons — kind of as Cole did in his two Houston seasons before joining the Yankees. But Cole, Sabathia and even Tanaka (from Japan) had far fewer questions about them.
It is a reminder that the Yankees have had their best success with free-agent starters when they have gone to the top market for the unquestioned ace. Their four largest free-agent pitcher signings before this offseason were Sabathia, Tanaka, Cole and Mike Mussina, whose six-year, $88.5 million pact came after the 2000 season. The Yankees were 4-for-4 in that arena.
The Yankees have not fared as well when they have speculated on high-end stuff or a good season or two leading into free agency, with pitchers such as A.J. Burnett, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. The caveat is that in an uneven first season, Burnett was durable and authored three huge postseason efforts around two clunkers in a championship season. But that was it. The contract turned rancid afterward for the team.
No pitcher who made more than 77 starts for the Yankees (Burnett made 98) had a worse ERA in franchise history than his 4.79. And the Yankees traded the righty to Pittsburgh with two seasons left on his five-year, $82.5 million deal — and ate $20 million of the $33 million left.
Rodon falls somewhere between the two camps. He is neither full speculation nor unquestioned ace. You could see Cole or coal in the Yankees’ stocking. Because there is some left-handed Burnett — overwhelming stuff, but lots of concerns about health and how he will handle the Yankees cauldron — in Rodon.
You can convince me today that the Yankees have signed a pitcher who has figured out how to harness an upper-echelon repertoire, stay mainly healthy and is about to have a sustained run of durability and brilliance in his 30s. And you can convince me that the Yankees just signed Burnett again, but at roughly twice the price.
I talked to several people who were around Rodon with the White Sox and Giants. All of them loved his stuff.
If you want a sampling: “an electric, swing-and-miss arsenal.” And, “His fastball-slider combo is elite — the velocity and movement are pretty unique. A lefty that throws that hard and generates that amount of run and carry and is able to do so as a starter is almost unicorn-ish.” And, “He has outlier stuff from the left side. It is very special at top form.”
But those I spoke with also worried about durability (Rodon’s walk year represents the only 30-start or 170-plus-inning season of his career) and temperament in transitioning to New York. No one painted Rodon as a problem, but more wondered about maturity, putting pressure on himself and handling larger reporting groups and a more passionate critical fan base if he runs into a period of poor performance.
As one said: “I believe he would need media coaching prep after starts as he can be very reactionary to questions at times if it doesn’t work as planned. So, yes, he will say the wrong things in a moment and come back to apologize the next day. He is a good, shy kid who means no harm.”
Another said: “It’s maturity, not character. He puts a lot of pressure on himself and sometimes has troubles dealing with the ups and downs — and now he has the contract to justify.”
As recently as after the 2020 season of just four games, two starts and an 8.22 ERA, Rodon was non-tendered and signed back with the White Sox for one year at $3 million. At that point, in six seasons, his ERA-plus was exactly league average at 100, and he had made just 92 starts. In the past two seasons, one for the White Sox and one for the Giants, Rodon has honored being the third pick overall in the 2014 draft. He was an All-Star each season, combining for a 156 ERA-plus in 55 starts.
Of the 83 pitchers who have cleared 250 innings combined in 2021-22, Rodon is third in batting average against (.196), behind just Cristian Javier (.176) and Max Scherzer (.195), and has the best strikeout percentage at 33.9 percent, ahead of Cole’s 32.8. If the Yankees get that version in tandem with Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas, they could have the majors’ best rotation.
Rodon has become successful the past two years as a lefty version of Jacob deGrom — essentially riding his two overpowering strengths, a fastball and slider. Among those who threw 900 pitches last year, Rodon delivered a fastball or slider 92.3 percent of the time (Baseball Savant), which was fourth highest. DeGrom was 10th highest at 86.7 percent.
And the comparisons do not end there. The Rangers gambled five years at $185 million this offseason on deGrom — betting on the stuff and swallowing the concerns, notably about health. If you were wagering, who would you bet will start more games the next five years: deGrom or Rodon? Who will earn more Cy Young votes?
Rodon received the same $162 million as Brandon Nimmo (though over eight years from the Mets). And their commonality (besides Scott Boras as an agent) is that they had their healthiest season in their walk year.
That is how money has flowed this offseason. Teams are gambling on high-end talent more than anything despite significant price tags and long-term commitments. Rodon is a high-end talent. For a franchise as desperate to win a title as the Yankees were heading into a new stadium in 2009, they were willing to bet on the elite stuff and what it could mean from here through October. It is like when the Yankees spent big in the same offseason on Sabathia and Burnett.
For the Yankees, will Rodon’s initial impression be CC or A.J.?
