2022 NFL sack leader odds, picks: Can T.J. Watt repeat after record season?

With the NFL season starting this week, there are only a few days left to identify values in the preseason player props market. And few offer more tantalizing upside than betting on the sacks leader.

By nature, sacks are somewhat volatile year to year, and elite pass rushers can be mined with advanced stats even if they aren’t tallying high sack totals. That leaves plenty of opportunity for the savvy preseason bettor to reap the rewards on emerging sack artists.

Here are the preseason odds at BetMGM to lead the NFL in sacks in 2022 (+5000 and shorter), along with our three best bets:

2022 NFL sack leader odds (via BetMGM)

Myles Garrett	+650
T.J. Watt	+700
Aaron Donald	+1200
Trey Hendrickson	+1200
Nick Bosa	+1400
Joey Bosa	+1400
Danielle Hunter	+1400
Chandler Jones	+1600
Khalil Mack	+1600
Maxx Crosby	+1800
Shaquil Barrett	+2000
Micah Parsons	+2000
Cameron Jordan	+2000
Robert Quinn	+2500
Von Miller	+2500
Za’Darius Smith	+2500
Matthew Judon	+2500
Haason Reddick	+2500
Markus Golden	+3000
Rashan Gary	+3000
Chris Jones	+3000
Chase Young	+4000
Brian Burns	+4000
Leonard Floyd	+4000
Demarcus Lawrence	+5000
Emmanuel Ogbah	+5000
Yannick Ngakoue	+5000
Marcus Davenport	+5000
Sam Hubbard	+5000
Josh Allen	+5000
Jeffery Simmons	+5000
Bradley Chubb	+5000
Aiden Hutchinson	+5000

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T.J. Watt, Steelers (+700)

I’m usually not one to bet the top few choices in a market this deep, especially with the volatile nature of sack totals on a year-to-year basis. But this feels downright disrespectful to Watt, who led the league in sacks in 2020 (15) before tying the NFL single-season record for sacks (22.5) in 2021.

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Perhaps the craziest part is he did the latter in just 15 games, which would suggest a whopping 25.5-sack pace across a full 17-game season. He may not reach those lofty heights in 2022, but he’d missed just two games in his entire career before last season and has totaled at least 13 sacks in four consecutive seasons.

Clearly, the floor is sky-high for Watt, who paced the field by four sacks a year ago and has upped his total every season of his five-year career. Even some minor regression from the best defender in football could still cash again in this market.

Maxx Crosby, Raiders (+1800)

We highlighted Crosby as one of our best bets to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year a few weeks back, so naturally we love his chances to lead the league in sacks, as well.

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Crosby’s never been a high sack total guy, tallying a combined 25 sacks in three seasons, but a closer look at his pass-rushing profile tells a different story. In 2021, he led the league in hurries (77) and QB hits (20), per PFF, while finishing second in overall pressures (108). He also boasted the highest pass-rush win rate (26.8 percent) among those with at least 100 attempts, which is a key indicator for future sacks.

It’s only a matter of time before Crosby’s incessant pressure on opposing quarterbacks turns into sacks, especially with elite pass rusher Chandler Jones (+1600) on the other side. At this price, Crosby is a major dark horse.

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Brian Burns, Panthers (+4000)

Burns has been an analytics darling for a few years now, churning out pressures without converting them into high sack totals. It looked like he might take the leap a year ago; instead, he posted nearly identical totals from his 2020 campaign.

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Could this be the year he finally puts it all together? The Panthers edge rusher will once again be a staple for this sneaky Carolina defense, which should boast a better secondary than in 2021. That’s good news for Burns, who owns among the best pass-rushing arsenals in football but has totaled just nine sacks in consecutive seasons. He’s well worth a long-shot wager here.