The saying goes that there’s nothing like a Game 7 — well, except for a Game 5 in MLB’s divisional playoffs!
The Los Angeles Dodgers play host to the Washington Nationals in a decisive Game 5 on Wednesday night (8:37 p.m. ET/5:37 p.m. PT in L.A.) for a berth in the NLCS.
I have a Nationals +185 series bet, but instead of looking to hedge it, I’m going all-in with the Nats as live road underdogs. Obviously, with the series tied 2-2, they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the NL’s No. 1 seed … and I see Game 5 as a virtual coin flip with Stephen Strasburg starting for Washington (he held the Dodgers to just three hits and a single run in six innings of the Nats’ 4-2 win in Game 2).
The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler (six scoreless innings in Game 1). He’s been inconsistent at times, as he’s been lit up on six occasions this season, so there’s a decent chance the Nats catch Buehler on an off day.
If you’re looking for stats to support this underdog play, I don’t have them, as the Dodgers have the better offense and the better bullpen (plus Clayton Kershaw available in relief). But I like how manager Dave Martinez’s Nationals — written off by many when Bryce Harper left in the offseason — have come together as a team, including rallying in the NL wild-card games so they can play loose while all the pressure is on the Dodgers.
Despite their high payroll and abundant talent, the Dodgers have been underachievers in recent postseason history, with no world championships since 1988 (granted, the Nationals haven’t won a playoff series since their arrival in Washington in 2005) but at least we’re getting plus money on the lesser of two chokers.
The play: Nationals +140.