Mayor Bloomberg’s warning of massive layoffs of city schoolteachers might not reach as deeply into the workforce as once feared, thanks to a larger number of retirements than first predicted, sources told The Post.
Bloomberg’s staff is privately indicating that up to 3,000 teachers are likely to leave the public school system voluntarily this year — about 1,000 more than was expected in the mayor’s most recent budget update last month.
In February, the mayor first warned that the city would have to shed 6,166 teachers from the payroll — with 4,666 of those coming from layoffs and the rest from attrition. It would have been the most teacher layoffs in more than three decades.
He amended the figure in May, saying about 2,000 teachers would be leaving voluntarily, which would have reduced the layoff number to 4,100.
Yesterday several sources said the mayor is still low-balling the attrition figure.
“My understanding is that the attrition number is going to be significantly higher” than earlier estimates, said one source in city politics.
Another source called the changing attrition figure “a numbers game.”
Bloomberg aides and United Federation of Teachers President Michael Mulgrew did not comment on the issue, which is the subject of intense negotiations with the City Council and the union.
A source said a deal between the mayor and the union on the layoff and attrition numbers is likely to be struck before the Fiscal Year 2012 budget takes effect on July 1.