Countdown to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, for Sunday Oct. 19
Race 3 Dirt Mile
Three-year-olds & up: Purse: $1 million. Distance: One mile. Post time: 2:30 p.m. Bets: WPS, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3, Daily Double.
ANALYSIS: Run for the first time last year (when the distance was a mile and 70 yards because of the track configuration at Monmouth Park), the “Dirt Mile” won’t be run on dirt this year or the next because Santa Anita has a synthetic Pro-Ride surface. That gives the edge to horses who’ve raced well on synthetics, which is why Well Armed, coming off a win in the Group 1 Goodwood on Sept. 27 over this track, figures to be a solid favorite.
Albertus Maximus, Lewis Michael, Mast Track, Rebellion, Surf Cat and Two Step Salsa are also synthetic specialists. With a short run to the first turn and a full field of 12, post positions are important. Inside good, outside bad.
LIVE LONGSHOTS: Lewis Michael, up the track in last year’s Dirt Mile in the slop, has run just twice in 2008 with this race his goal. He’s coming off a handy score over Polytrack in Del Mar’s Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap, and has two wins, two seconds in four starts at the distance.
THE BET: Well Armed, who’d be a legitimate threat if he ran in the Classic, will be hard to beat but must avoid a speed duel with Two Step Salsa. Key him in exotics, but also use Albertus Maximus, a rallying third in the Goodwood. Rebellion and Lewis Michael should be along for a share.
TOMORROW: Ray Kerrison on the Mile