THE spread, Redskins -3, looks to be the trap of the year. It suggests the teams would be dead even on a neutral field, and that’s nonsense. The linemaker is begging you to pick Big Blue, so your first reaction is to resist.
But the only football reason to justify a Skins pick tomorrow is to point to the Giants’ troubles on the road. They have two wins away from Giants Stadium – at San Francisco with Cody Pickett at QB and in OT vs. the depleted Eagles. They also lost 31-7 last season at Washington.
But when these teams last met on Oct. 30 in Jersey, Tiki Barber ran for 206 yards and the Giants won “only” 36-0 because five of their drives netted field goals instead of TDs.
After Barber’s record 220-yard game last week, the Skins will have to go all out to stop him. That will give Eli Manning plenty of chances downfield to the likes of Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer.
This is the Giants’ year, at least in the NFC East. They won’t leave D.C. without that title.
The pick: Giants +3.
BENGALS (-14) over Bills
The Bills were complete garbage last Saturday night and lost by only 11 to the Broncos. So this spread seems a little wacky, but Carson Palmer and the Bengals can hang a 34-13 on any bad team, any time.
Steelers (-7)
over BROWNS
After yielding 64 points in losses to the Bengals and Colts, the Steelers have responded by giving up just 12 in wins over the Bears and Vikes. Will take a chance with this hefty spread against decent Browns QB Charlie Frye.
Chargers (pick)
over CHIEFS
Tough travel for the Chargers after win of the year in Indy, and LaDainian Tomlinson’s still hurting with a chest injury. But KC may be done after gut-wrenching losses at Dallas and the Meadowlands.
Titans (+51/2)
over DOLPHINS
Spread might be a little much with Ronnie Brown and Gus Frerotte both questionable. Also a little skeptical of the Dolphins’ ability to reel off five in a row.
TEXANS (+6) over Jags
In the past five weeks, the Jags have scored 31, 24, 20, 18, 10. Yes, they’ve won four of the five, but sense a trend? Texans have yielded teens the past three, so this looks like another low-scoring one.
Lions (+3) over SAINTS
We’ll go the point-differential route in the dog game of the week. The Lions have scored only 78 fewer points than they’ve given up. The Saints are 148 in arrears.
Cowboys (+5)
over PANTHERS
While Bill Parcells looked like Larry Brown during the D.C. annihilation, his Cowboys are 8-6 and not nearly as bad as 35-7 suggests. They’ll be a tough obstacle for the 10-4 Panthers, who are gunning for an NFC bye.
BUCS (-3) over Falcons
Credit to the Falcons for slugging it out with the Bears in the Soldier Field meat locker. But it’s been clear since midseason this isn’t their year, and Jon Gruden will get much better from the Bucs on the heels of a 28-0 loss at New England.
49ers (+9) over RAMS
On opening day, the Niners made Mike Nolan an undefeated coach with a 28-25 win over the Rams. Encouraged by Frisco’s 10-9 loss at the Jags, enough to go with a QB, Alex Smith, with 0 TDs, 10 INTs and a subatomic 26.6 rating
Eagles (+1) over CARDS
Ryan Moats has been a breakaway sensation, averaging 8.2 yards per carry and scoring three TDs in his two Eagle starts. The Cards are 1-5 in the desert and can’t run the ball at all.
SEAHAWKS (-10)
over Colts
Inconceivable amount of points to be giving a 13-1 team. But Seattle’s playing for the top NFC seed and the Colts have nothing at stake, significant injuries (Marvin Harrison, Cato June to name two), a 2,250-mile trip and are dealing with the tragic death of Tony Dungy’s son.
BRONCOS (-13)
over Raiders
The Raiders will show up, but with LaMont Jordan doubtful and a dozen stupid penalties probable, it’ll be hard for them to keep up with the 11-3, bye-seeking Broncs.
SUNDAY
Bears (-7) over PACKERS
The Bears are in three-way hunt for the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye, and their defense will be all over Brett “24 INTs” Favre. Brian Urlacher’s unit might outscore Rex Grossman’s.
Vikings (+21/2)
over RAVENS
Baltimore’s 48-3 rout of the roll-over Packers was one thing. It’ll be different against the Vikes, who couldn’t handle the Steelers, but are still an 8-6 team that needs the game.
MONDAY NIGHT
JETS (+51/2) over Patriots
The timing may be just right for this result. The Patriots essentially are locked in to the No. 4 playoff seed, and Bill Belichick isn’t going to let Tom Brady’s shoulder take too many shots. The Jets have scored 46 points the past two games and should treat this as their Super Bowl.
BEST BETS: Chargers, Broncos, Eagles.
LAST WEEK: 6-10.
BEST BETS: 2-1.