NATO Hits Peak 2 Percent

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Seventy percent of NATO nations reach the alliance’s defense spending target, the Washington Post reports that Israel says it’s close to wrapping up operations in Rafah, and the Biden administration moves Ukraine to the front of the line for air defense.

Hitting the Mark

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was in Washington this week, dotting i’s and crossing  t’s ahead of the upcoming Washington NATO summit next month.

In a speech at the Wilson Center on Monday, Stoltenberg announced that a record number of NATO allies, more than 20 in all, will this year meet the alliance’s 2 percent defense spending goals, up from just three countries a decade ago, when the targets were first put in place. The alliance confirmed in newly released statistics that 23 nations will hit the mark.

Stoltenberg underscored the increased contributions of European allies as U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested he would not defend NATO members that fail to meet minimum spending requirements.

“Europeans are doing far more for their collective security than just a few years ago,” Stoltenberg said.

The increase has also been a boon for U.S. businesses, he noted. “Much of this extra money is spent here in the United States,” he said. Over the last two years, more than two-thirds of European defense acquisitions—over $140 billion worth of contracts—have been made with U.S. firms. “NATO is good for U.S. security, good for U.S. industry, and good for U.S. jobs,” he said.

The Financial Times reported earlier this week that U.S. and European defense companies are on a hiring spree, recruiting workers at the fastest rate since the end of the Cold War, boosted by increased defense spending in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and general global unease. U.S. behemoths Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics have close to 6,000 job openings.

The war in Ukraine will be top of the agenda at the NATO summit next month, which is set to start on July 9. The alliance will be taking over from Washington in coordinating military aid support and training for Ukraine to ensure continuity in Western support for Kyiv and insulate it from political headwinds in the United States and Europe.

Stoltenberg is also seeking an agreement on a financial pledge for Ukraine of some 40 billion euros annually, although the details are still being hashed out by allies ahead of the summit.

Signaling tectonic shifts in global security, the third item on the trans-Atlantic alliance’s agenda for the meeting next month will be global partnerships with a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific. “The war in Ukraine demonstrates that our security is not regional, it is global,” said Stoltenberg, pointing to Beijing’s support for Russia during the war.

“China is fueling the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II,” he said.

The summit will be Stoltenberg’s last as secretary-general, after leading the alliance for a decade. He is expected to step down by Oct. 1. In the race to be his successor, Klaus Iohannis withdrew his candidacy on Thursday, leaving outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as sole contender. He is expected to be confirmed as Stoltenberg’s successor in the coming days.

Rutte is a veteran of European politics, having served as prime minister of the Netherlands since 2010. Rutte’s candidacy was favored by some of NATO’s biggest member states, including the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany, although allies on the eastern flank sought a candidate from the region.

Rutte has been described as a “Trump whisperer” and will likely have his work cut out for him in the event of a second Trump presidency, said Jim Townsend, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy. “I think Rutte, being the clever politician that he is, should be able to handle Donald Trump, at least the one we saw four years ago,” he said. “However, a Trump 2.0 will be surrounded by loyalists and more savvy about how to get his way and who his enemies are. That may make him harder to handle.”

Let’s Get Personnel

U.S. President Joe Biden has nominated Kristin Johnson to be assistant secretary of the Treasury for financial institutions.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

A shift in Gaza. The Israeli military is close to wrapping up its offensive in Rafah, according to the Washington Post. “The Israel Defense Forces said it has destroyed most of Hamas’s 24 battalions and has severely degraded three of the four remaining battalions in Rafah. But lone fighters and small groups are still launching rockets into Israel and targeting troops, even in areas of the Gaza Strip already largely under Israel’s control,” wrote the Post’s Steve Hendrix and Hajar Harb.

This shift could mark an end to major ground and air operations, which have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians in the coastal enclave. More targeted operations are likely to continue. Meantime, tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon continue to escalate. The country’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, said this week that a decision on a war with Hezbollah would be made soon. An all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group would likely be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon, Amy wrote this week.

Top of the list. The Biden administration is redirecting Patriot missiles to Ukraine to boost the country’s air defense against Russia, instead of delivering them to other countries. Separately, Romania announced today it would send a Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in April that the war-torn country needs at least seven Patriot systems to defend itself effectively against Russia’s air assault.

Slow down. Somalia’s government wants to slow down the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers from the war-torn country, Reuters reported today. Two thousand troops from a variety of African countries are expected to leave this month ahead of an overall exit by the end of the year. The Somali government sent a letter last month to the African Union Peace and Security Council calling to delay the withdrawal of half of the 4,000 peacekeepers originally expected to leave in June. Somalia has asked for the withdrawal timeline to be adapted to the “actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces, according to the letter.

Snapshot

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (L) drive an Aurus car in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Put on Your Radar

Thursday, June 20: Stoltenberg and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meet in Washington, D.C.

Sunday, June 23: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to meet Argentine President Javier Milei in Berlin.

Wednesday, June 26: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition leader Keir Starmer square off in a BBC debate ahead of elections on July 4.

Thursday, June 27: Biden and Trump square off in the first presidential debate in Georgia hosted by CNN.

Quote of the Week

“We genuinely do not know what he is talking about. We just don’t.”

—White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre pushes back on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that the U.S. administration has been holding back weapons and ammunition in the past few months, hampering the Rafah offensive. U.S. officials maintain they have only held back one delivery of heavy bombs.

This Week’s Most Read

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• The Hidden Critique of U.S. Foreign Policy in ‘Red Dawn’ by Antonio De Loera-Brust
• Why Biden’s Gaza Gambit Is Likely to Fail by Aaron David Miller and Steven Simon