India Looks to Seize Opportunity at COP28

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: India looks to lead the global south at the annual U.N. climate change conference, the United States charges an Indian citizen in an assassination plot against a prominent Sikh separatist on U.S. soil, and Russia and Bangladesh quietly engage in naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal.

Can India Lead on Climate at COP28?

This year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, begins on Thursday in Dubai. A big question is how developing countries will fare in pushing richer states to do more to reduce global warming. The summit provides another key opportunity for India to prove its capacity to serve as a bridge to the global south—a top foreign-policy goal for New Delhi.

India has long nurtured leadership ambitions within the global south, going back to its prominent role in the Non-Aligned Movement soon after its independence. New Delhi has also backed a multipolar world order that would give countries in the global south a greater voice on the world stage, including advocating for ample multilateral groupings.

As India’s global influence has grown, it has sought a bridging role between the global south and wealthier nations. New Delhi leverages its membership in prominent groups, from the G-20 to BRICS, to call for increased focus on challenges that disproportionately affect the global south. For example, in 2020, India lobbied the World Trade Organization to suspend intellectual property rights protections for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.

India’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is also instructive. Its refusal to take a strong public stand against Moscow’s invasion or to stop importing Russian energy in the face of Western pressure has garnered praise from other countries, including rival Pakistan. India’s G-20 leadership year gave it a prominent platform to orient rich countries’ attention toward the global south’s biggest challenges, from debt to climate change.

India has also faced setbacks to its leadership ambitions. Its strong backing for Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza—which New Delhi sees as a necessary counterterrorism campaign—puts it at sharp odds with the global south, which is largely united in condemnation of the Israeli military operation. China’s own aspirations on the global stage, coupled with its heavy engagement and investments in developing countries, are also problematic for India.

Still, New Delhi seems poised to capitalize on the opportunity offered by COP28. India provided a preview of its positions at the summit in a report it submitted to the U.N. assessing global progress on combating climate change. Mentioning the “expectations of the developing countries,” the report calls on wealthier nations to move faster and with more accountability when it comes to curbing emissions and to uphold previous pledges to provide climate finance to developing countries.

India has long embraced climate as an issue it can lead on: At the 2021 U.N. climate summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made one of the most ambitious pledges to date of any major emitter, vowing to make India net zero by 2070. New Delhi used its G-20 presidency to push for more climate finance and clean energy investments. And despite continued reliance on coal, India is taking steps at home to scale up its renewables sector.

In a formal sense, New Delhi won’t be a leader of the global south at COP28. That role falls to Cuba, the current chair of the G-77, the large developing-country bloc within the U.N. Rich countries and developing countries are at odds over climate finance and emissions reduction obligations. But last year’s summit unexpectedly produced a deal to set up a loss and damage fund for climate-vulnerable nations.

It’s clear that wealthy and developing countries must unite on climate mitigation. Global warming is quickly becoming an existential threat in South Asia—and the global south more broadly. With such high stakes, India has a compelling incentive to lead from the front in forging global cooperation against the shared threat.

What We’re Following

U.S. charges Indian citizen in assassination plot. On Wednesday, U.S. officials unsealed an indictment against an Indian citizen, Nikhil Gupta, who prosecutors say sought to arrange the assassination of a prominent Sikh separatist on U.S. soil. An Indian government official directed the plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, according to the indictment.

Pannun is a lawyer affiliated with Sikhs for Justice, an organization banned in India, and New Delhi has designated him as a terrorist. The indictment says that Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic in June; the plot was foiled when Gupta unknowingly recruited an individual working with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency as an accomplice.

Still, U.S.-India ties have not yet plunged into crisis. Senior U.S. officials reportedly issued a warning to their Indian counterparts after uncovering the plot, but there is no indication of retaliation or consequences for the partnership. After all, the Biden administration views India as a critical partner in countering Chinese power.

In the weeks ahead, officials from both countries will likely tread carefully given the significance of their strategic relationship, FP’s Sumit Ganguly writes.

South Asia at COP28. Confirmed attendees to the U.N. climate summit in Dubai include Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, caretaker Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and recently elected Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is listed as a participant, although Dhaka has not publicly confirmed her attendance.

Bhutan hasn’t announced who will lead its delegation. For the third year in a row, Afghanistan will not have formal representation at the summit due to U.N. sanctions on the Taliban regime. Some observers argue that Afghanistan still deserves representation at COP28 because of its acute vulnerability to climate change. U.N. officials have instead permitted an Afghan climate activist, Abdulhadi Achakzai, to observe and engage with participants from the sidelines.

Indian tunnel rescue. On Tuesday, rescuers safely evacuated 41 construction workers from a collapsed tunnel in the mountains of the state of Uttarakhand in northern India, where they were trapped for 17 days. After heavy machinery failed to do the job, rescue workers cleared a path to the trapped laborers with old-fashioned tactics, including digging by hand.

Authorities have not provided an explanation for the collapse of the tunnel, which was part of a project to better connect Hindu pilgrimage sites. But the risks of serious flooding, earthquakes, and landslides in Uttarakhand made the tunnel controversial. The successful rescue will give a quick boost to India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which controls the state government.

However, officials may also face tough questions in the coming days: A preliminary investigation ordered by New Delhi found the tunnel had no emergency exit and ran through a geological fault, which investigators believe may have triggered the collapse.

Nepal pro-monarchy protests. Beginning last week, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Kathmandu to call for the restoration of the monarchy, which was eliminated in 2008 as part of an accord that ended a long Maoist insurgency in Nepal. Many of the demonstrators have also called for Nepal to return to its former status as a Hindu state; it is now a secular republic.

Police used tear gas and batons to break up the protests last Thursday. The demonstrations likely won’t balloon into a mass movement, but they do reflect the unhappiness of many Nepalese about the country’s political system. Critics say Nepal’s political leaders have no interest in addressing the country’s long-standing challenges and are instead consumed by petty squabbles.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Nepal’s last 15 years have been marked by fractious ruling coalitions that often collapse, and voter turnout in recent elections has been low.

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Under the Radar

This month, three Russian warships quietly docked in Bangladesh’s Chattogram port in the country’s southeast. According to a Bangladesh military statement, the vessels spent three days in the port, with Russian naval officers meeting their Bangladeshi counterparts and participating in exercises with Bangladeshi ships in the Bay of Bengal. Russian state media said the visit was the first to the port by a Russian naval fleet in nearly 50 years.

On one level, the visit isn’t surprising: Dhaka and Moscow have always enjoyed friendly relations, and the Soviet Union backed Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war. Today, Russia is a key investor in Bangladesh’s nuclear energy sector. Bangladesh has abstained from several U.N. resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. However, Bangladesh also seeks to balance its ties, including with the United States and Russia.

Last December, after U.S. pressure, Bangladesh refused to let a Russian ship carrying parts for a Russian-financed nuclear power plant dock in its ports. That may partially account for the recent naval visit—to balance out the earlier decision, which did not sit well with Moscow.

And while a Russian show of strength in the Bay of Bengal won’t please the United States, it is likely welcomed by India—a key partner of both Bangladesh and Russia that wants to see other navies projecting power to the Indian Ocean to balance China.

Regional Voices

In the Print, journalist Jyoti Malhotra discusses why India’s government backs Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. “Notwithstanding all her other idiosyncrasies, there’s one thing about Hasina that will gladden any subcontinental heart—she is fully secular and determined to keep Bangladesh secular, too,” she writes.

Mining and energy expert Farid Malik argues in the Express Tribune that untapped coal reserves in Pakistan’s Thar Desert can help boost the country’s energy security. “Thar Coal is suitable for gasification which is the way forward for the use of coal,” he writes. “With this huge energy resource at a shallow depth of about 150 meters, Pakistan is well-placed to meet all its energy needs.”

A Kathmandu Post editorial excoriates recent protests in Nepal calling for the restoration of the monarchy. “Even the idea of hereditary monarchy is antithetical to the democratic spirit of the 21st century. In modern-day Nepal, you get to rule if you are chosen by the people, not because you have an imagined, God-given right to lord it over others,” it argues.