The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political EarthquakeAmnon Cavari, Richard J. Powell, Kenneth R. Mayer The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake critically analyzes the 2016 presidential election. The chapters in this book identify key factors behind the election of Donald J. Trump, explore the unconventional campaign, analyze the unexpected election result, evaluate the forecasting models, and speculate on the effect of the election outcome on politics and governance in the Trump Administration. |
Contents
| 3 | |
Chapter Two Populist Challenges and the 2016 Presidential Nominations | 23 |
Perceptions of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Based on Presentation Style | 43 |
The Trump Effect on Senate General Election Campaigns | 59 |
Israel in US Elections | 77 |
Section II FORECASTS AND VOTING PREFERENCES | 97 |
Chapter Six Hostile Sexism Racism Denial and the Historic Education Gap in Support for Trump | 99 |
Chapter Seven Dynamics of National Electoral Preferences during the 2016 US Presidential Race | 117 |
Section III ELECTION OUTCOME | 159 |
Chapter Nine The 20162017 Transition into the Donald J Trump Administration | 161 |
Chapter Ten Is President Trump Conventionally Disruptive or Unconventionally Destructive? | 185 |
Chapter Eleven How Radical Is Actually Radical Leadership? Comparing Trump and Netanyahus Rhetoric | 199 |
The Election of 2016 and the Future of the Supreme Court | 219 |
| 237 | |
About the Contributors | 251 |
Chapter Eight Assessing the 2016 US Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts | 137 |
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2016 presidential election agenda American politics attitudes average Barack Obama Bernie Sanders Bush cabinet candidates caucuses and primaries Cavari combined forecast component Congress congressional convention Democrats Donald Trump economic dissatisfaction effects elec election campaign election outcome electoral elites error exit polls federal Figure focuses foreign policy George H. W. Bush Graefe groups Hillary Clinton ideology important in-group bias Israel issue Journal Justice last 100 days leaders major Marco Rubio Mean absolute error Netanyahu Obama Palestinians partisan percent percentage points Political Science poll results Polly Vote PollyVote popular vote populism populist prediction markets preferences President Trump presidential debates race racism racism denial Reagan Republican Party respondents rhetoric right-wing scores Senate sexism survey Ted Cruz tion transition Trial-Heat Trump Court Trump won two-party vote U.S. presidential elections University Press variance victory visual presentation style vote choice vote for Trump voters White House York