Modelling the health impact of environmentally sustainable dietary scenarios in the UK
- PMID: 22491494
- PMCID: PMC3389618
- DOI: 10.1038/ejcn.2012.34
Modelling the health impact of environmentally sustainable dietary scenarios in the UK
Abstract
Background/objectives: Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.
Subjects/methods: A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.
Results: Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36,910 (30,192 to 43,592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11,301) deaths delayed or averted.
Conclusion: Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results.
Figures
Similar articles
-
Reducing GHG emissions while improving diet quality: exploring the potential of reduced meat, cheese and alcoholic and soft drinks consumption at specific moments during the day.BMC Public Health. 2018 Feb 20;18(1):264. doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5132-3. BMC Public Health. 2018. PMID: 29458352 Free PMC article.
-
Healthy diets with reduced environmental impact? - The greenhouse gas emissions of various diets adhering to the Dutch food based dietary guidelines.Food Res Int. 2018 Feb;104:14-24. doi: 10.1016/j.foodres.2017.06.006. Epub 2017 Jun 6. Food Res Int. 2018. PMID: 29433779
-
Meat consumption reduction in Italian regions: Health co-benefits and decreases in GHG emissions.PLoS One. 2017 Aug 15;12(8):e0182960. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182960. eCollection 2017. PLoS One. 2017. PMID: 28813467 Free PMC article.
-
The role of meat in strategies to achieve a sustainable diet lower in greenhouse gas emissions: A review.Meat Sci. 2017 Oct;132:189-195. doi: 10.1016/j.meatsci.2017.04.014. Epub 2017 Apr 21. Meat Sci. 2017. PMID: 28460836 Review.
-
The Impacts of Dietary Change on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land Use, Water Use, and Health: A Systematic Review.PLoS One. 2016 Nov 3;11(11):e0165797. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165797. eCollection 2016. PLoS One. 2016. PMID: 27812156 Free PMC article. Review.
Cited by
-
Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies.Environ Res Lett. 2017 Nov;12(11):113001. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f7b. Epub 2017 Oct 27. Environ Res Lett. 2017. PMID: 38605885 Free PMC article.
-
Partial substitutions of animal with plant protein foods in Canadian diets have synergies and trade-offs among nutrition, health and climate outcomes.Nat Food. 2024 Feb;5(2):148-157. doi: 10.1038/s43016-024-00925-y. Epub 2024 Feb 16. Nat Food. 2024. PMID: 38365909
-
Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study.PLoS One. 2023 May 10;18(5):e0284733. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284733. eCollection 2023. PLoS One. 2023. PMID: 37163471 Free PMC article.
-
Measurement of diets that are healthy, environmentally sustainable, affordable, and equitable: A scoping review of metrics, findings, and research gaps.Front Nutr. 2023 Apr 3;10:1125955. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2023.1125955. eCollection 2023. Front Nutr. 2023. PMID: 37077905 Free PMC article.
-
Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study.Front Nutr. 2023 Mar 17;10:1098231. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2023.1098231. eCollection 2023. Front Nutr. 2023. PMID: 37006927 Free PMC article.
References
-
- Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Building a low-carbon economy – the UK's contribution to tackling climate change. CCC: London; 2008.
-
- UK Government. Climate Change Act 2008. Internet: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27 ( accessed 24 November 2010).
-
- Garnett T. Cooking up a Storm. Food, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and our Changing Climate. Food Climate Research Network: Guildford; 2008.
-
- Steinfeld H, Gerber P, Wassenaar T, Castel V, Rosales M, de Haan C. Livestock's Long Shadow. Food and Agriculture Organization: Rome; 2006.
-
- Sustainable Development Commission . Setting the Table. Advice to Government on Priority Elements of Sustainable Diets. Sustainable Development Commission: London; 2009.
Publication types
MeSH terms
Grants and funding
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources